We all remember what happened at Homestead-Miami Speedway back in November 2019. Kyle Busch arrived for the Championship race with a winless streak of 21 races, having won his last race at the Pocono 400 back in June. Critics and fans had counted him out of the equation, with most putting their money on the recent winners Denny Hamlin or Kevin Harvick, but Rowdy proved everyone wrong and won the race that mattered the most, taking home his second Cup Series Championship.
As we return once again to the Homestead-Miami Speedway, the stage is all set for history to repeat itself. Busch is coming to the 6th race of the season with a winless streak of 62 races since his last win back in Illinois in 2023, just like he arrived here back in 2019 when no one expected him to win. As Kyle Busch once again gears up for another race at this track, the question that arises is, can Homestead-Miami Speedway be the salvation that Busch has been searching for the past 62 races?
Can Kyle Busch do the impossible once again?
Despite the fairytale narratives, the odds aren’t in his favor. According to BETMGM, Busch is at +1800 to win this race, way below the favorites like Kyle Larson at +400, and 2024 Homestead playoff race winner Tyler Reddick at +550. With only 2 wins in the 20 times he has raced so far, including the championship-winning race in 2019, Busch has an average finishing position of 16th on this track, which does not bode well for the 2-time champion. However, a deeper dig into his record brings out a unique variable to his lack of recent success.
The Next-Gen car, introduced in 2022, has been the pitfall of many great drivers. Jimmie Johnson got his first and only top-20 finish in over 10 Next-Gen starts at the 2025 Daytona 500. Denny Hamlin also admitted, “That’s not my forte. I’ve got to learn to be better at it.” Similarly, Kyle Busch has seen a drastic dip in his form, but it has also coincided with his switch to Richard Childress Racing in 2023!
Homestead-Miami Speedway and 2019 NASCAR Cup Series Champion – Kyle Busch!pic.twitter.com/KAdKGCBd0A
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) December 31, 2019
While it is worth noting that before 2020, it was only the Championship trace that was at Homestead, until it moved to Phoenix that year, after which Homestead got one race a season, and for the last three years, that was in the playoffs. But now, this is the only Homestead race of the season and it’s come in quick time, but is it the right time for Busch?
From 2015 to 2021. Busch had 7 consecutive top-10 finishes at Homestead Miami Speedway, including two wins! In 2022, his last season at Joe Gibbs Racing and the debut of the Gen 7 car, Busch finished 9th, a respectable finish that stretched his streak to 8. However, since his move to RCR, he hasn’t even scratched the top 10, with his results being 18th in 2023 and 31st in 2024.
This kind of track statistic does not inspire confidence in the minds of everyone, but this year Busch has shown flashes of brilliance that reminded us of the Rowdy of old. Busch came close to ending his winless streak back in COTA when he led 42 laps before getting overtaken by Christopher Bell with fresher tires and just 6 laps to go. This came after a late caution saw his 2-second lead on the pack vanish as Busch’s tires wore out.
With the winless streak increasing every race, the pressure to perform is also increasing with it. But this is Rowdy we are talking about. If there’s anyone who can do it, it is him. Busch has led more laps here at Homestead-Miami Speedway than any driver in the last 10 races, with 435 laps. To add to that, he has accrued only 2 DNFs in 20 races at this track. Busch certainly knows how to avoid chaos and succeed in Miami.
Rowdy’s RCR and Next-Gen struggles
The Next-Gen car was certainly not a favorite amongst the veterans on the grid. Ahead of the 2025 Daytona 500, Busch came clean on his struggles with the car. “It’s a different beast. And for me, I would say that I haven’t been able to tame it as much as I was able to the older version cars,” the RCR driver said. However, despite going on a year-long winless streak for the first time in his career in this car in 2024, 2025 has looked bright.
After a third consecutive top-10 in Phoenix, Busch praised his RCR team for the progress made from a winless 2024. “I would say the step that we made from last year to this year was a really good step. The same amount of step. If we do that again, then we can be a contender to race for a win,” he said after a 7th-place finish. However, his return to his hometown of Las Vegas compounded his misery.
Busch dealt with pit-road penalties and a loose tire which eventually led to him being multiple laps down and out of contention. Busch could only muster up a 34th-place finish at his home track, another place he has struggled at since joining Richard Childress Racing. Since 2023, Busch has just one top-10 finish at Las Vegas, compared to a pair of top-five finishes as recent as 2022, with the Next-Gen car while he was at Joe Gibbs Racing.
Evidently, RCR and Busch have their work cut out if they want to break this streak at Homestead. His record is wonky, but his team has been improving. Do you think Busch can put an end to his misery this weekend? Let us know in the comments!
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