Gilbert Burns isn’t done yet, at least that’s what he hopes to prove this Saturday. The former welterweight title challenger is definitely struggling to find his balance again in the UFC, as evidenced by a three-fight losing streak. To make matters worse, he faces another young, motivated competitor. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned over the years, it’s that you cannot count ‘Durinho’ out, ever. So, he returns to the main event at UFC Vegas 106 to face the undefeated Michael Morales in what appears to be an epic showdown.
For Morales, it might be the most important bout of his young career. Only 25, the Ecuadorian prospect is undefeated at 17-0 and coming off a stunning knockout of Neil Magny. And trust us when we tell you that with each fight, he has only gotten better. Now he faces a five-round test against one of the division’s most recognized fighters. It’s classic UFC matchmaking: a scarred veteran looking for a comeback vs. the next great thing. Experience versus momentum. And that is precisely why fans are all hyped up to see the two titans clash. But who is more likely to win? Well, let’s do a little prediction through some statistics, shall we?
UFC Vegas 106: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales stats
Let’s be honest—on paper, this contest is much closer than the odds indicate. Sure, Morales is undefeated and riding high, but Gilbert Burns did not rise to the top of the welterweight rankings by collapsing under pressure. With a 22-8 record, the 38-year-old Brazilian has defeated some of the greatest in the business and boasts one of the division’s most formidable grappling resumes.
He has 22 wins, nine via submission and six by knockout; thus, he is dangerous no matter where the fight goes. However, the signs of wear and tear are evident. ‘Durinho’ has been in some wars recently, losing to Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena, and Sean Brady, and the performance has seen a dip. He averages 3.17 significant strikes per minute and takes more than he throws (3.57). Nonetheless, he is efficient (48% accuracy) and can wrestle when necessary, averaging more than two takedowns per 15 minutes.
The concern? His takedown defense is only 53%, and against a long striker like Morales, he’ll need to distance himself fast. Morales, on the other hand, is an entirely different beast. He is 6’0″ tall, long, and confident, with an incredible 79-inch reach (eight inches longer than Burns). He’s averaging 5.42 significant strikes per minute, nearly doubling Burns’ output, while maintaining the same 48% accuracy.
What truly stands out is his 92% takedown defense. That is elite. When you combine it with his crisp striking and calm demeanor, you get a young fighter who looks more like the real deal. So, who is more likely to win?
Burns vs. Morales breakdown and prediction
This fight will come down to timing, and not just inside the cage. It is about where each individual is in his career. Gilbert Burns is the wily veteran, and this type of matchup is common. He has faced excellent strikers, vicious wrestlers, and everyone in between. He understands what’s at stake, so don’t be surprised if he comes in with a clever, grappling-heavy strategy to draw Morales into deep waters.
But Morales is not the type of person who panics. He is calm, patient, and does not waste movement. The way he handled Magny, who has frustrated several other fighters in the past, was amazing. If he keeps ‘Durinho’ at range, stuffs the takedowns, and lets his hands go, he could easily win this one. And don’t forget: he’s never tasted defeat. That kind of confidence is important.
So, for the time being, Morales appears to be the clear favorite, which feels a little wide given Burns’ resume and skill set. However, based on what each fighter has shown recently, Morales is the smart pick. Burns is still dangerous, without a doubt, but Morales appears to be entering his prime, whereas the Brazilian might be nearing the exit ramp. But what do you think? Who will win? Let us know in the comments.
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