The UFC Vegas 104 is almost upon us and is going to take place at the UFC’s Apex facility, in the smaller 25-foot Octagon. This event will be headlined by a rematch between former UFC middleweight title challenger Marvin Vettori and ascending star Roman Dolidze.
There are many other exciting fights in this UFC Fight Night card, but all eyes are on this rematch as it could very well decide the trajectory of the middleweight division. So without further ado, let’s get into the stats and predictions of who might win this time.
UFC Vegas 104: Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze stats
For their first encounter in 2023, where ‘The Caucasian’ lost against ‘The Italian Dream’ via unanimous decision. After that, the 19-7-1 competed just once and lost to Jared Cannonier in June 2023 via unanimous decision. But the former middleweight title contender stayed out of action from then through 2024. This means he’s coming back to the Octagon after more than a year and a half away.
As for Dolidze, he was defeated by Nassroudine Imavov in 2024. The Georgian came back to win two back-to-back fights against Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland. The 14-3-0 star won against Holland with a massive TKO at UFC 307.
Naturally, both are at a crucial point in their careers and this rematch is going to be pivotal for both. For Vettori, this win could put him in a position to challenge a top 5 lightweight. For Dolidze, it’s a chance for him to enter the top 10 of the rankings.
Vettori vs. Dolidze breakdown and prediction
If we want to make predictions, let’s talk some numbers and stats. Marvin Vettori stands at 6’0” with a southpaw stance. The Xtreme Couture member has two wins by KO and 9 wins by submission, with 11 first-round finishes. With a 46% striking accuracy and 1156 successful strikes out of 2532 attempts, he has a decent striking game. Vettori has gone the distance in every fight since 2020 and the 31-year-old should be at the peak of his career but has not shown much progress lately, with a gap in his Octagon appearance as well.
On the other hand, Roman Dolidze is #12 in the middleweight division and has 8 wins by KO, 3 wins by submission, and 8 first-round finishes. With a 43% striking accuracy and 42 % takedown accuracy, he has landed 391 strikes from his 910 attempts. Dolidze has put together two wins in a row, most recently stopping Kevin Holland at the end of the first round. He looked tremendous in that fight, and evening the score with Vettori would be a major feather in his cap.
The first time they met, Marvin Vettori was able to win a unanimous decision by utilizing his control, aggression, and overall experience. For Dolidze, who is on a 2-fight winning streak, a win would launch him to the top ten—or possibly a jump up to a top 5 opponent next, if he wins impressively.
He is 36 and in the latter half of his career, so a win over Vettori is a must if he hopes to keep climbing the rankings. For Vettori, it’s unclear because at one point he was a fourth-ranked middleweight and persisted to impress with every fight. After losing to Israel Adesanya in 2021 for the second time, he has only competed four times and compiled a 2-2 record. The man who left his family for this career to honor his country and his family needs to prove himself again. Who do you think will win this time? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
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