After months of anticipation and shake-ups in the featherweight division, the UFC is finally ready to crown a new 145-pound champion. When UFC 314 arrives, Alexander Volkanovski will return to the Octagon for yet another title fight—but this time, the crown is vacant. Who is standing in his way? Diego Lopes, a rising Brazilian juggernaut on a five-fight winning streak, is surely hungry for gold. This is more than just a title fight; it’s a statement fight for both men.
‘The Great’ wants to recapture the featherweight title after losing it to Ilia Topuria via a brutal knockout at UFC 298. Lopes sees it as an opportunity to shock the world and establish himself as the division’s future leader. On paper, it’s a classic battle of force and precision, expertise vs. sheer finishing ability. But who will have the upper hand? Well, today we will lean on some statistics and break everything down to do the prediction. So, without further ado, let’s dive in.
UFC 314: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes stats
At 36 years old, Alexander Volkanovski enters UFC 314 with a chip on his shoulder and the resume of a future Hall of Famer. With a record of 26-4, including 13 knockouts and three submissions, the Australian has proven his versatility over and again. His striking is clean, efficient, and planned, averaging 6.16 significant strikes per minute with a remarkable 56% accuracy. While many people refer to his Muay Thai background, it is his ability to mix in 1.78 takedowns every 15 minutes while defending 70% of them that actually makes him dangerous all around.
Diego Lopes, a 30-year-old Brazilian, stands opposite him and has been quietly turning heads. His 26-6 record is bolstered by a staggering 22 finishes, 12 by submission and 10 by knockout. The Brazilian averages fewer strikes per minute than ‘The Great’ (4.20), but he’s no slouch on his feet, with a 53% accuracy rate. But it’s his ground game that makes him truly dangerous. Diego Lopes thrives in scrambles and transitions, averaging 2.76 submission attempts every 15 minutes, and a single mistake from Volkanovski could be all he needs to capitalize.
Lopes will be taller (5’11” vs. 5’6″) and have a longer reach (72.5″ vs. 71″). Those attributes, combined with his slick grappling and improving striking, make him a serious threat—particularly against Volkanovski, who is coming off his first knockout loss. Still, when it comes to the Octagon, Alexander Volkanovski’s resume and poise under pressure are tough to match.
Volkanovski vs. Lopes breakdown and prediction
Volkanovski vs. Lopes isn’t your typical striker vs. grappler matchup; trust us, it’s far more complicated than that. ‘The Great’ may have the advantage on the feet, but Lopes is no slouch standing up either. In fact, his striking has improved, and he has shown composure against powerful hitters such as Brian Ortega, whom he defeated handily at UFC 306. However, the longer the bout lasts on the feet, the more advantageous it is for the former champion. Alexander Volkanovski’s volume, timing, and counter-striking are all excellent, but his ability to withstand only 3.44 strikes per minute while landing nearly twice as many set him apart.
Where things get interesting is on the mat. Lopes is cunning and persistent when it comes to grappling exchanges. If he can get the battle to the ground, even for a brief period of time, he has the capacity to latch on to submissions and reverse the tide. His takedown accuracy is 40%, but facing someone like ‘The Great,’ who has an excellent 70% takedown defense, getting to the mat may prove to be his most difficult challenge yet.
Finally, this feels like Alexander Volkanovski’s fight to win—but not by much. Volkanovski is listed as a modest favorite at -135 (roughly a 58% estimated victory chance), and Lopes is the underdog in the race at +110. If Volkanovski can shake off the cobwebs and fight like the version that defeated Max Holloway three times, he will most certainly win the belt. However, if there is any hesitancy or slip, Lopes will be prepared to capitalize on it.
Do you think Lopes can pull off the upset, or will ‘The Great’ remind everyone why he was once king? Do let us know in the comments below!
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