“On both ends of the floor, I felt like we were going off script.” That was Hubert Davis shortly after North Carolina’s disappointing exit in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. It’s a frank, open assessment, but it also highlights somewhat of a recurring theme under his watch. What started as a Cinderella story- Final Four in 2022—has fast come crashing back to reality. It’s been rocky since, missing the tournament in 2023 and just a single Sweet 16 in 2024 to its name. Now, it’s a question of if it’s time for Hubert Davis to go … but it’ll cost some money. The Tar Heels are stuck in a rut, and breaking free might mean breaking things off with the head coach—but at what cost?
As the Tar Heels lick their wounds from the early exit, there have been rumblings that UNC may have to move on from Davis if they’re to return to the upper echelon of the sport. That noise has grown louder heading into the 2025-26 season.
An ugly 1-12 record against Quad 1 programs this season did him no favors. Nor did the controversial circumstances in which his squad secured a March Madness berth. For a blue blood like North Carolina, there’s an expectation that has to be met. And more often than not, Davis hasn’t been able to do that.
On the Field of 68: After Dark podcast, Jeff Goodman made it known that next season will be crucial for Davis. “Next year is going to be a pivotal year for Hubert Davis and his future with North Carolina,” Goodman said. “They gotta to do more; have gotta be relevant. They have to be relevant all year. Can’t be a bubble team again, or else I think next year will be Hubert Davis’s last year.” That’s a lot of pressure for Davis and it seems like it’s all coming down to whether or not he can make it happen.
North Carolina holds six national championships, and for a program with that kind of pedigree, being on the bubble simply isn’t good enough. If his team underperforms again come tourney time, it’s difficult to imagine Davis keeping his job. UNC can’t afford to wallow in mediocrity, and if Davis doesn’t prove himself next season, he’ll likely be shown the door.
But it is easier said than done for UNC. Davis’ situation got more complicated when he signed a contract extension in December 2024. The extension, which was originally agreed to in July, tacks two more years on his deal, meaning he’ll remain with the Tar Heels through 2030. His pay rate increased exponentially as well. He’ll get $1.25 million a year in base salary, a $850,000 bump from $400,000. And his supplemental income starts at $1.7 million and will increase each year.
So what does this mean in terms of a possible buyout? Well, that’s the confusing part.
What is UNC’s buyout for Hubert Davis?
If UNC were to fire Hubert Davis today, the school would owe him $6.25 million. If UNC waits until the end of the 2025-26 season, it’ll $5 million ($1.25 million less). Giving things one extra year to play out provides UNC with one less year’s worth of Davis payments, but the school may soon have to ask itself the question: Can we afford to wait that long to make a change? Or do we need to cut our losses right now?
Credit: Imago
UNC has always been a patient program with just four head coaches since 1961. Each of whom was given time to build something. That sort of stability is what Tar Heels basketball has been known for. But this isn’t 1961. The sport is far more evolved. Pushed along by NIL deals and the transfer portal, which has shifted expectations of what rebuilding looks like.
Meanwhile, the 2025 Tar Heel recruiting class is underwhelming. It ranks outside the top 20 in the country, and Carolina has no five-star talent committed. That’s a red flag for a program used to reeling in the biggest fish. There’s no doubt that Davis will need to show an ability to adapt if he is to earn another year to prove himself.
It boils down to a difficult decision for the university: keep a coach who is linked to the history of the program or take a chance on a clean break. With an extension and with the hire of Tanner as UNC’s first executive director and general manager, it seems like the school is giving Davis one last chance. But one more substandard season could force the hand of the Tar Heels. The 2025-26 season looms as Davis’s last stand. With RJ Davis gone after exhausting eligibility, the roster hinges on young talents like Elliot Cadeau and Ian Jackson, plus Tanner’s transfer portal haul. But without a proven big man or a top-tier recruiting class, UNC risks another bubble-bound year. It’s a crossroads moment for Hubert Davis, and the future of North Carolina basketball.
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