Aryna Sabalenka has been on a tear in 2025. Titles in Brisbane and Miami? Check. Finalist at both the Australian Open and Indian Wells? Double Check—she’s been steamrolling through the season like it’s her personal highlight reel. But there’s one pesky pothole in her otherwise smooth ride: the Stuttgart Open. She’s made the final three years in a row (2021, 2022, 2023) and walked away with… well, just the runner-up plate. Now she’s back for a fourth swing at that Porsche. Standing in her path? Jelena Ostapenko, a former French Open champ. This one’s got all the makings of a clay-court classic. So who grabs the crown (and the car)? Let’s break it down!
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko: Preview
Aryna Sabalenka has powered her way into a fifth final this season—and she’s done it in style, without dropping a single set. After receiving a first-round bye and benefiting from a second-round walkover, the Belarusian breezed past Elise Mertens 6-4, 6-1 in the quarterfinals. She followed that up with a composed and clinical 7-5, 6-4 win over Jasmine Paolini in the semis, once again leaning on her signature baseline firepower and steady nerves in the big moments.
On the other side of the net, Jelena Ostapenko’s season hasn’t exactly turned heads—until now. The Latvian, who reached the final in Doha earlier this year before falling to Amanda Anisimova, entered Stuttgart unseeded and had to scrap her way through a much tougher draw. She began with a retirement win over Dayana Yastremska, then battled past seventh seed Emma Navarro in a tight contest. Her biggest statement came in the quarterfinals, where she stunned World No. 2 Iga Swiatek—improving her incredible head-to-head record to 6-0 against the Pole. A solid 6-4, 6-4 win over Ekaterina Alexandrova in the semifinals sealed her spot in her first final at this event.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko: Head-to-Head
Prediction: Sabalenka in straight sets
The Stuttgart final is shaping up to be a power-packed showdown between two of the biggest hitters on the WTA Tour. Aryna Sabalenka’s explosive game has always been well-suited to the slick indoor clay courts here, where her heavy serve and flat, aggressive groundstrokes give her an edge in controlling the tempo early in rallies. But what’s really set her apart this season is how much more measured she’s become. The raw power is still there, but she’s now constructing points with a level of maturity that wasn’t always present in her earlier years.
For Jelena Ostapenko, the week has been a statement of intent. Taking down World No. 2 Iga Swiatek yet again was a reminder of just how dangerous she can be when her game clicks. But Ostapenko’s high-risk, high-reward style can be a double-edged sword, especially on clay, where rushed shots and misfires tend to pile up. Her second serve remains a glaring vulnerability, and against someone like Sabalenka, that’s likely to be targeted relentlessly. While Ostapenko has shown flashes of brilliance on clay, most notably her 2017 French Open triumph, her results on the surface since then have been hit or miss. Sabalenka, in contrast, has quietly turned herself into a much more competent clay-courter.
Her three straight finals in Stuttgart speak to that growth, and her 3-0 head-to-head record against Ostapenko suggests she knows exactly how to disrupt the Latvian’s rhythm. With the title within reach for a fourth time, Sabalenka’s hunger and form could finally carry her over the line. Expect her to lift the trophy—likely in straight sets.
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