Rick Pitino’s vision for St. John’s was always clear. Step one: win the Big East regular season championship — check. Step two: keep getting better — check. Step three? Pitino put it simply: “Make the tournament and go as far as we could possibly go.” Now that the Red Storm have secured their spot in March Madness as a No. 2 seed in the West Region, the road ahead looks daunting. And if you ask Stephen A. Smith, Pitino’s squad might not have enough to survive the storm.
While the segment on First Take initially focused on Cooper Flagg’s upcoming game, the conversation quickly shifted to UConn before eventually settling down on St. John’s. When asked about the Red Storm’s chances, Smith didn’t sugarcoat it. “Florida’s just too loaded,” Smith said. “I just believe that St. John’s can get to the Elite Eight. And then after that, they run into Florida as well. And they’re going home because they can’t shoot. They can defend against anybody, they’ve got height, they’ve got athleticism. They’re rough and rugged.”
Smith acknowledged that Pitino’s full-court press — especially in the second half — could give most teams nightmares. But not Florida. “Particularly their size on the frontline as well. They’re just too loaded. Plus, they can shoot. They would be too much for St. John’s. Nobody else in that region would be, but Florida will be. They knock off UConn first. And then after that, they take care of St. John’s.”
St. John’s has been one of the best defensive teams in the country this season. Their 87.5 defensive rating ranks No. 1 in the nation, and their 113.9 offensive rating sits at a respectable 65th. The Red Storm also have six Quad 1 wins (6-4), a testament to their ability to win big games. ESPN BET reflects that strength, giving St. John’s +200 odds to make the Final Four and 25-1 odds to win the national championship.
St. John’s opens their tournament run against No. 15 seed Omaha, the Summit League champions, in the Round of 64. It’s the first time the Red Storm have made the tournament since 2019 and their highest seed since 2000 — also the last year they won a tournament game. Omaha, meanwhile, will be making its NCAA Tournament debut.
Pitino’s squad isn’t just fighting history; they’re also battling perception. Florida’s official X account didn’t waste time reminding everyone that Georgia beat St. John’s 66-63 earlier this season. But what Florida conveniently forgot to mention is that Georgia also handed them one of their four losses this season, an 88-83 defeat on February 26.
Florida is the No. 1 seed in the West Region for a reason. They finished the season 30-4, won the SEC Tournament, and boast a 128.6 offensive rating — tops in the country. Their backcourt, led by Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard, and Alijah Martin, is deep and experienced. That’s the kind of guard play Smith believes will dismantle Pitino’s press.
But first, St. John’s needs to handle business with Omaha.
St. John’s faces dangerous Omaha squad with upset potential looming
Omaha arrives at the dance after winning the Summit League Tournament, posting a solid 22-12 record along the way. They’ve shown resilience on the road (7-9) and have been consistent against the spread (23-9-0), making them a dangerous opponent. St. John’s, meanwhile, boasts a dominant 30-4 record, including an undefeated 18-0 mark at home. But as any tournament veteran knows, past success doesn’t guarantee future wins.
NCAA, College League, USA Mens Basketball 2024: New Mexico vs Arizona State NOV 28 November 28 2024 Palm Springs, CA U.S.A. New Mexico head coach Richard Pitino reacts to an officialÃââ s call during the NCAA Acrisure Classic Men s Basketball game between New Mexico Lobos and the Arizona State Sun Devils. Arizona State beat New Mexico 85-82 at Acrisure Arena in Palm Springs Calif. Thurman James/ CSM Credit Image: Â Thurman James/Cal Media Palm Springs Ca USA EDITORIAL USE ONLY Copyright: xx ZUMA-20241128_zma_c04_203.jpg ThurmanxJamesx csmphotothree326686
Statistically, the matchup presents intriguing contrasts. Omaha shoots a respectable 46.6% from the field (108th nationally), but St. John’s elite defense (ranked 20th in opponent field goal percentage at 40.1%) will test their shot-making ability. Omaha’s three-point shooting (36.7%, 57th) could be a wildcard, especially if they get hot early. However, St. John’s perimeter defense ranks 122nd, which could give Omaha a slight opening from deep.
Where the Johnnies have a clear edge is in size and defensive pressure. Pitino’s team forces an average of 15.6 turnovers per game — 11th best in the country — while Omaha struggles to protect the ball, averaging 10.9 turnovers (91st). The Johnnies also rank ninth nationally in blocks (3.8) and 17th in steals (6.6), highlighting their ability to disrupt opposing offenses. Omaha will need to take care of the ball and stay composed under St. John’s relentless pressure if they want to keep it close.
Omaha’s offense, averaging 78.1 points per game (91st), will be up against a St. John’s defense allowing just 65.9 points per game (35th). If Omaha’s leading scorers can get going early, they might be able to hang around — but if St. John’s clamps down, the Red Storm’s balanced attack and defensive muscle could make it a long night for the Summit League champs.
St. John’s has the tools to handle business — but Omaha’s underdog energy is the type of March Madness storyline that’s built to spoil dreams. Pitino knows better than anyone that in this tournament, you’re only one bad shooting night or turnover-filled half away from going home. Will the Johnnies survive and advance — or will Omaha shock the bracket?
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