Once every decade or so, there comes a pitching prospect with a level of hype that transcends the sport, creating a must-see event every time they take the mound. We witnessed it with Stephen Strasburg and Mark Prior. But it is exceedingly rare that two such forces emerge in the same division at the same time. Today’s duel between Paul Skenes and Jacob Misiorowski feels like one of those moments.
After a historically dominant rookie season in which he reigned supreme more or less unchallenged, the reigning Rookie of the Year now faces a legitimate challenger to his throne. Even opposing managers are trying to manage the sky-high expectations. “(Skenes is) one of the best in the game,” said Brewers manager Pat Murphy. “Miz is in his third start. It’s unfair to compare them, for sure.” That single comment perfectly captures the tension.
This isn’t just a game; it’s a glimpse into the future of pitching. With both teams hungry for a statement win, every pitch will be scrutinized, every at-bat a test of nerves. Let’s break down the stats, pitching metrics, betting odds, and predictions for Skenes vs. Misiorowski—the duel that could define a new era of MLB dominance.
When do Paul Skenes and Jacob Misiorowski pitch tonight?
The stage is set for this epic duel today, Wednesday, June 25. The first pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET (1:10 p.m. CT). The rubber game of a competitive three-game series begins on this special afternoon start. It will feel like a playoff game for anyone in the stands or at home watching.
The dream matchup will be played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Brewers’ home park has a retractable roof, so projected weather (forecasted rain) won’t be a factor here. The hype is so intense that the game is said to be close to a sellout. To be sure, fans appreciate the gravity of this moment because they’re getting a front-row view of what might be baseball’s next great pitching rivalry.
Skenes vs. Misiorowski: Full stat breakdown before first MLB showdown
The traditional stats, at first glance, can make you do a double-take. Jacob Misiorowski boasts a perfect 2-0 record with a sparkling 1.64 ERA and a minuscule 0.55 Walks and Hits/Innings Pitched (WHIP). Paul Skenes, meanwhile, has a 4-6 record, a 1.85 ERA, and a 0.88 WHIP. If you just looked at that, you might think the Milwaukee phenom has been the better pitcher. But that’s not the whole story.
So let’s go a bit deeper, because advanced analytics reveal a much different story. The most relevant context is sample size. Misiorowski’s numbers come from just 11 spectacular innings. Skenes’ record is built over 102 dominant innings this season. Now, let’s look at Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which measures what a pitcher can control. Skenes’ 2.49 FIP is very close to his 1.85 ERA, which means his performance is sustainable. However, Misiorowski’s 3.62 FIP is almost two whole runs higher than his ERA. That massive gap is a classic red flag for future regression.
This difference can be explained by their basic profiles. Advanced metrics such as Stuff+ (which measures raw pitch quality) and Location+ (which measures command) help explain it all. Misiorowski’s raw stuff is unbelievable, earning a 128 Stuff+ rating that is among the best in baseball. But his command remains a work in progress, as evidenced by his below-average 88 Location+. Skenes is the opposite: he has great stuff (108 Stuff+), but his command is truly elite (110 Location+). This is the central conflict: Misiorowski’s unhittable power versus Skenes’ pinpoint precision.
Paul Skenes betting props vs. Brewers
For those looking to wager on this marquee matchup, the betting markets offer fascinating insights. Paul Skenes, the current favorite for the NL Cy Young, draws a lot of attention. His strikeout prop is set at a lofty Over/Under of 7.5. The Over is priced at +124, suggesting that while he is more than capable of hitting that number, the Brewers’ lineup will make him work for it.
Another interesting line is Skenes’ total outs recorded, set at 18.5 (equivalent to completing 6.1 innings). The Over is +125, and the Under is heavily favored -168. This indicates that oddsmakers think the Brewers’ hot offense, winners of five of their last six, may be able to chase the Pirates’ ace from the game before he completes the seventh inning. It’s a compelling bet on Skenes’ dominance versus Milwaukee’s mojo.
Jun 5, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
And Skenes is considered the “gold standard of NRFI bets“. The NRFI for this game is heavily favored, with odds around -165, reflecting high market confidence in both Skenes and Misiorowski starting with a clean first inning.
Jacob Misiorowski scouting report: What Pirates hitters should expect
Facing Jacob Misiorowski for the first time is a monumental challenge. After starting his career with an 11-inning hitless streak, Pirates hitters can expect pure shock and awe. He is headlined by a generational four-seam fastball. It averages a Major League-leading 99.7 mph and is amplified by his 7.7 feet of release extension, making it feel even faster.
His secondary pitch is a slider that comes in at an average of an absurd 94.5 mph, which is faster than most pitchers’ fastballs. It’s a true “unicorn” pitch. But control is the wild card. The biggest thing working against Misiorowski is a slight issue with control, as he allowed 5 free passes in his first 11 big-league innings. The best approach for Pittsburgh is to be patient. That might lead to some walks, but his stuff is so dominating that he is nearly unhittable even when he is in the zone.
How to watch Brewers vs. Pirates live: TV channel, streaming Info
And you’ve got plenty of good options to make sure you do not miss out on this historic showdown. The game is on MLB Network nationally. Local viewers can watch on SportsNet Pittsburgh (for Pittsburgh’s market) and FDSWI (for Milwaukee’s market).
For streaming, Fubo and DirecTV Stream are excellent options for in-market viewing. Best of all, this contest has been named the MLB.TV Free Game of the Day. That makes it available to out-of-market fans to stream live without a subscription. Just keep in mind, the national broadcast on MLB Network means the game will be blacked out on MLB.TV for users inside the United States, so the free stream is the primary option for most.
Ultimately, this matchup is a treat for all baseball fans. It pits Skenes’ polished consistency against Misiorowski’s raw, overwhelming power. It’s a compelling narrative that goes beyond the box score. Will the proven ace outduel the rising phenom, or will the rookie’s historic start continue? Sit back, relax, and witness what could be the beginning of a legendary rivalry.
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