Tension is beginning to creep in down in the Padres. With the playoff race tightening, fans and insiders alike are asking the same question: What is the next move? As the trade deadline comes closer, the management can no longer stay silent, and a current revelation from the GM has peeled back the curtain on what the Padres are really hoping and why their approach could surprise more than a few people around the league.
They could be holding on to first place in the NL West; however, it is hardly a firm grip. After a red-hot 14–3 beginning, the Padres have stumbled and dropped five of their last eight games. What once was a powerful push toward October has begun to blur, specifically, with the Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks breathing down the Padres’ necks. While Fernando Tatis Jr. has played out of his mind and the bullpen’s been lights out, there is only so long a thin roster can stretch without snapping.
That drop is showing up in the data. As currently as April, Fangraphs pegged the team’s playoff chances at 45.2 percent, which was up from 32.9 percent in March. In May, it peaked slightly at 45.3 percent, cracking 50 percent in some ESPN forecasts. However, after the latest slip-up, the team’s odds have dropped to 43.2 percent. That is not a free fall, but it is a red flag. It is also why eyes turned toward A.J. Preller—because if anyone is pulling the strings ahead of the deadline, it is the GM.
Preller, never one to shy away from big swings, did not dodge questions when asked related to what the team plans to do after that. “We’ve had years where we’ve been aggressive. We’ve had years where we stood pat,” the GM said. “Right now, it’s looking like we’re hoping to add to the club we have, but we’re always open-minded.” Such flexibility could look safe, however, it is an identical transformation from the all-in mentality of recent seasons. Translation? The team is not ruling anything out—buying, selling and standing still.
This open-ended tone highlights a new kind of force for Preller. The team has been in this situation before—stacked with stars, pushing payroll limits and betting the farm. Think Juan Soto in 2022. That blockbuster cost the Padres five high-profile stars, containing James Wood and MacKenzie Gore—stars now excelling elsewhere. Yet, despite two short postseason runs and Juan Soto’s exit, the GM remains confident. “Honestly, I think we look back with a lot of pride and not regret,” Preller reflected this week.
As the team approaches another trade deadline, they need to again balance their hope to chase a championship and the risk of mortgaging their future. Preller acknowledged how current trades have reshaped the farm system and added that the team is still analyzing whether it is wiser to add, sell and stand pat. “If we have a chance to win, we’re going to do everything we can,” the GM said. While two top prospects like Leo De Vries and Ethan Salas remain in the pipeline, the depth is thinner than ever. Internally, Preller remains confident that some under-the-radar pitchers could quietly swing deadline deals and emerge in the years ahead.
So, the past will not go away. James Wood starred in his return to Petco Park, Abrams racked up three hits and Gore outpitched the team—all reminders of the cost paid for past playoff pushes. Whether those decisions were worth it relies on what the Padres choose to do now. With wild-card places slipping out of reach, the coming weeks could highlight the entire Preller era.
However, the echoes of the team’s blockbuster moves—specifically, engaging with Juan Soto—are impossible to ignore, specifically when some of the decisions now look costly and strangely justified.
Shildt stands by Soto blockbusters as Padres walk tightrope
Mike Shildt has not wavered. As the team heads toward another defining trade deadline, their skipper is doubling down on a thought that continues to split the fans: both Juan Soto trades were worth it. From Shildt’s thought process, the first deal brought quick postseason payoff, helping the team to reach the NLCS in 2022. The second, Shildt argues, salvaged long-period value. The Padres could have lost a stat, however, the team ignored watching him walk for nothing—a fate the Yankees just swallowed after Soto left for the Mets.
Transitioning a team through high-stakes swings takes more than just guts; it needs outcomes. Mike Shildt insists the returns, Michael King, Randy Vasquez and Drew Thorpe, who helped to land Dylan Cease, have paid dividends. This could not soothe fans watching Wood tear it up elsewhere, however, it shows the team played the long game. In the short period, the Padres got elite production from Juan Soto; in the long period, the Padres restocked the pitching cupboard. The moves were large, the stakes were larger, however, in Shildt’s mind, both trades gave the team a shot—then and now.
Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
The Padres are staring down a vital moment, where the echoes of past trades fulfill the urgency of the current playoff race. With the deadline quickly approaching, every move will send a message related to the team’s direction.
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