Gary Bettman wasn’t kidding when he said the NHL has “never been better” after looking at the league’s finances. Nor did the 72-year-old seem to exaggerate the fact that the league will cross the massive $7 billion revenue milestone in the coming days. What’s even more impressive is the fact that riding on that, the NHLPA predicted a sharp increase in the salary caps.
While the salary cap is already at a historic high of $88 million. The league predicted that those numbers would cross the coveted $100 million mark in just a couple of years. So with the cap possibly rising to $95.5 million in 2025-26, $104 million in ’26-27, and $113.5 million in ’27-28, everyone wants to know who will reach the annual average value (AAV) of $20 million. And they have a few names.
So when one user on Reddit’s r/NHL forum asked, “Who will be the first $15 million AAV, the first $20 million?” the comments section flooded with responses. Among the most common names fans mentioned in the comments, Connor McDavid led the pack. Considering many call the forward who scored Canada’s winning goal in the 4 Nations Face-Off, the NHL’s best player, it’s not surprising.
They also predicted Connor McDavid to reach this milestone sooner rather than later. That’s because the forward is in the seventh year of his eight-year, $100 million contract with the Edmonton Oilers. So if the Oilers want to keep their star player in Oilers Country, they’ll be wise to offer the Canadian ice hockey star a lucrative contract extension next year.
Since McDavid’s AVV is already at a whopping $12.5 million, neither party should have to break a sweat bumping that number above $15 million. However, not everyone is on the same page regarding the NHL icon reaching the $20 million AVV when and if he extends his contract with the Edmonton Oilers.
Will Connor McDavid be the first NHL player to reach the magic number?
Some fans didn’t even hesitate to comment on the name Connor McDavid to reach the record-breaking milestone. “McDavid 100%,” commented one fan, and the comment garnered nearly 150 upvotes. Another similar comment got a similar number of upvotes. So at a glance, it would seem that the fans had reached a consensus. Yet, did they?
From every fan choosing McDaivid, there were just as many exploring the possibility with more nuance. In fact, some fans threw in a bunch of names before concluding that neither of the existing players would even reach the $20 AAV in their careers. “Well, McDavid and possibly Makar will make 15 on their next contracts,” wrote one NHL fan. However, he wasn’t so optimistic about it all.
“20 is absolutely impossible to say, but my guess would be a stud d-man, so possibly Dupont? I don’t think any current NHLer will ever make 20 mil,” added the fan. But what is the math day? Well, many fans broke the math down as well, but had a hard time seeing the icon reach $20 million. So let’s take a deeper look at that math.
“Current maximum is 17.6m based on 20% of 88m,” commented one fan. “Cap would need to grow to 100m for it to be 20m. So we’re a bit away from 20m. Next season, McDavid can be extended, so likely he gets like 16-17m there,” said the fan. While the math checked out, the fan calculated the amount according to this NHL season’s salary cap.
Yet, unless the Edmonton Oilers have already pitched an offer to Connor McDavid, there’s a shot that the base amount would increase next year. If we believe the league’s prediction, then next season, that same 20% could count against $95.5 million. Then again, as per The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn, a 20% hike is the league-allowed maximum.
What if the Oilers don’t offer the maximum to Connor McDavid? What if the NHL star himself settles for less? And it’s this exact variable that one fan highlighted in his comment. “It depends on how team-friendly of a deal he’s willing to take. But McDavid could definitely get $15M this summer,” the hockey enthusiast responded to the post.
And while the others continued to harp on the fact that, “the $20 million AAV player isn’t yet in the league…” it was The Athletic reporter who saw things differently. “According to my model, McDavid is currently the only player in the league projected to be worth 20 percent of the cap or more,” said Luszczyszyn. That’s because the analyst believes McDavid to be the only “blank check player” in the league.
In fact, the analyst predicted that McDavid could be worth a whopping $21 AAV by the time the 2026-27 season rolls around. Yet, at the end of the day, these numbers are just predictions based on projections. What will the real-world deal ultimately look like? With Stan Bowman expressing his confidence in keeping McDavid in Oilers Country, only time will tell how much more the NHL icon will earn.
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