“I apologize to our fans, I apologize to everybody associated with the program. That was extremely disappointing that we’re not better.” Seminoles plummeted to a 2-10 record, and Mike Norvell had to issue a public apology after the disastrous game. In 2023, he took the Seminoles to a flawless regular season, a conference championship, and then—unfortunately, got snubbed by the College Football Playoff committee. Then the 63-3 Orange Bowl loss to Georgia was a gut punch. These two consecutive years were a nightmare. The offense was among the worst in the nation. Norvell’s job security, once secure after that conference championship, is now far from it.
Gus Malzahn and Tony White are on board as new offensive and defensive coordinators, and Thomas Castellanos, a transfer from Boston College itself, is at the helm at quarterback. The message is certain: this is a make-or-break season. Following last year’s debacle, Norvell’s contract—reworked after the 2023 championship—now has the ACC’s biggest buyout at $63 million, something that seemed like a no-brainer then but now seems like a cost anchor on a crisis program. The fan base is agitated, the administration is paying attention, and analyst Josh Pate has a bone to pick.
Now, Pate isn’t one to make loose assertions for the sake of clicks. He keeps it real, and this year, he’s put Mike Norvell firmly in the crosshairs as a coach who can be walked out if things don’t go FSU’s way. “Is it a disaster season, cuz if it is, you know there’s really no limit at that point. It would be two of them in a row,” says Pate on his show on the 27th of June. “If it’s an up-and-down season, I don’t think he’s going to get fired before the season’s over.”
But there’s a twist, the heavy games are lined up at the end, so Pate thinks firing him mid-season won’t be a good idea.“Their bye week is after the Stanford game. So if they’re going to fire him, my point is, if they don’t do it after the Stanford game, there’s not another bye week the rest of the way. And there’s really no FCS game, like there’s no convenient place to do it.” You notice the Seminoles’ second (last) bye week falls immediately after their west coast journey to Stanford on October 18. That’s the last genuine breather before it gets wild.
If you examine the 2025 Florida State football schedule, you can already sense the pressure cooker beginning to bubble for Mike Norvell. Opening against Alabama at home? That’s a statement game for the team, following Castellanos’ record-breaking comments on beating Bama. Then, after two tune-ups against East Texas A&M and Kent State, it gets serious with a visit to Virginia, a home battle against archrival Miami, and a sequence that includes Pittsburgh, the cross-country journey to Stanford, and then a gauntlet of Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia Tech, NC State, and the season ending at Florida. As Pate puts it, “the biggest risk games are on the back end, like they should win some games to start off the season, at least not be terrible.”
That is to say, if the wheels are beginning to fall off and the administration is contemplating pulling the trigger on Mike Norvell, the Stanford bye week is effectively their final opportunity to act. The fanbase is going to lose its mind if a tragedy occurs with the schedule. The actual danger, however, is at the back of the season. That’s where distractions can seriously cause things to come apart, particularly after the horrors of CFP aspirations still hang over the Seminoles.
What if all the Florida teams flop?
Florida State supporters are expecting a giant turnaround in 2025, but the bitter truth is that their College Football Playoff (CFP) aspirations are teetering on the brink. Following a disappointing 2-10 record in the previous season, the Seminoles are in dire need of a turnaround, but it’s far from smooth sailing from here. One loss this season can cause the season to crumble, and with so many challenging games, it’s difficult to see FSU running the table or even coming close to it.
But the problems go beyond the calendar. Florida State—and the state’s other blue bloods, Miami and Florida, haven’t been able to retain the top in-state talent. As Devonta Freeman, a Miami Central High School graduate, said: “Every team, there’s a guy from Miami. Every team.” The Sunshine State is teaming with football talent, but too many of the state’s top prospects are playing elsewhere. This exodus has had FSU, Miami, and Florida all trying to get their bearings.
CBS Sports analyst Josh Pate did not mince words: “Chaos scenario would sound like this: What if Miami, Florida State, and Florida all finished below expectation level this year? Because what I’ve watched is nobody really put a death grip on the state from a talent acquisition standpoint, because none of those teams have won consistently enough. And because of that, a lot of the in-state talent has left,“ and until that changes, their playoff hopes are in jeopardy. For FSU in particular, another dismal season might be the kiss of death for head coach Mike Norvell.
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