The former world number one, Naomi Osaka survived a major scare in the R32 of the 2025 Miami Open. She looked a bit frustrated in the deciding set of the longest women’s match of the tournament (2 hours 59 minutes and 57 seconds) so far. However, she somehow managed to pull the strings just in time to secure her spot in the R16. Speaking about her performance, Osaka said, “This year I’ve played already a couple of scrappy matches. I think the fight kind of got me over it.” Can the 2022 finalist in Miami, put up a similar fight (if not better) against her Top 10 opponent, Jasmine Paolini (ITA) in the next match?
Naomi Osaka vs Jasmine Paolini: Preview
It has been a season full of ups and downs for the Japanese. She started the season, by reaching the final at the ASB Classic, but her injuries became a major hindrance to her first title triumph in the 2025 season. Naomi Osaka gave a walkover to Clara Tauson in the final and then she witnessed a similar fate in the R3 of the AO as well. Osaka suffered an early exit from the Indian Wells, but she came back strongly in Miami. She is currently on a three-match winning streak and the Japanese star will be entering this contest following her hard-fought 7-6(6),3-6,6-4 win over America’s Hailey Baptiste in the R32.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 27: Naomi Osaka of Japan in action against Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia in the first round on Day 2 of the US Open at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center on August 27, 2024 in New York City (Photo by Robert Prange/Getty Images)
On the other hand, her opponent in the next round, Jasmine Paolini advanced to the R16 after Ons Jabeur took a mid-match retirement due to a left leg injury. Paolini has struggled to perform this season and this was her first win over a Top 30 player after five consecutive losses. This will be her fourth R16 appearance in this season. How special is it for the Italian, though? “In Miami it is. Happy to be in the fourth round — never won two matches here,” said Paolini.
Osaka vs Paolini: Head-to-Head
Both Naomi Osaka and Jasmine Paolini have vast experience on the women’s Tour, but interestingly, this will be their first meeting. Hence, their H2H record is currently 0-0.
Prediction: Osaka to win in three sets
Yes, I feel Naomi Osaka will be forced to play her third three-setter at the 2025 Miami Open. However, considering her superior form in this season, I expect her to secure a victory in this high-octane clash. Osaka (61) currently has a win-loss record of 9-3 in this season, whereas, Paolini (7) has recorded 10-5. Osaka’s record on this surface is also another factor that put her slightly ahead of her Italian opponent. However, we must not forget, that Jasmine Paolini is a great fighter and hustler. She will keep the Japanese on her toes throughout the match.
So, fasten your seatbelts for an epic R16 clash! If we take a look at their playing styles, Paolini is known for her aggressive, dynamic playing style characterized by solid groundstrokes, particularly her strong forehand and her ability to outmaneuver opponents with speed and agility, despite being not the tallest on the women’s Tour. Her solid all-around game accompanied by her great anticipation skills can be really effective in this match.
Naomi Osaka is known for her aggressive, powerful playing style, featuring a strong forehand and a powerful serve. She has a strong two-handed backhand and her incredible athleticism on the court makes her a real threat against any opponent. Other than that, Osaka’s relentless grit to win longer rallies may also give her an edge in this contest. So, keeping all these aspects in mind, my pick is the 4-time Grand Slam champion!
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