“For me, it was just making sure my level stayed the same. In the second, I raised it.” American WTA star Coco Gauff exuded confidence after a stunning win against Madrid Open champion and five-time slam winner Iga Swiatek. On Thursday, the two met in the SF clash where Gauff dominated the Pole to make it to her maiden summit clash of the WTA 1000 clay event. But her title quest will be challenged by another formidable player and World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka. The latter is looking to clinch her third Madrid Open title this week. Who will claim the champion’s crown when the two meet in the final battle on Friday? Let’s try to find out!
Coco Gauff v Aryna Sabalenka: Preview
Coco Gauff’s 2025 journey has been in shambles so far. Back in January, she did deliver a promising run in Australia, reaching the QF stage. However, Spain’s Paula Badosa ended her campaign eventually. After that, the American has struggled to maintain consistency in subsequent events. She faced back-to-back early round exits in Doha, Dubai, Indian Wells, and then Miami. In Stuttgart, however, she finally managed to make a decent run and entered the QF round before losing to Italy’s Jasmine Paolini.
At the Madrid Open, she seems to have regained her lost momentum. Gauff began her campaign with a straight-set win over Ukraine’s Dayana Yastremska. Next up, the 21-year-old eliminated compatriot Ann Li, in R32, before taking down Swiss pro Belinda Bencic in the R16. Then in the quarterfinal stage, Gauff ousted 18-year-old tennis sensation Mirra Andreeva to book a spot in the semis. In the last four battle, Gauff faced five-time slam queen Swiatek and thrashed her with a double breadstick (6-1, 6-1) to enter the Madrid Open final for the first time.
Speaking of her opponent, World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka’s 2025 season has been impressive so far. Back in January, she began the year with a title win in Brisbane after defeating Russian Polina Kudermetova. Then in Australia, she went on to enter a third straight final before losing to America’s Madison Keys at the Rod Laver Arena. This heavy defeat affected Sabalenka’s form in subsequent tournaments. In Doha and Dubai, she was ousted in the first round and then in R16.
But being a top-ranked player, the Belarusian didn’t take long to find her form. In Indian Wells, she reached the final before losing to teenage sensation Andreeva. Sabalenka then made it to the summit clash of the Miami Open, too, where she eventually lifted the trophy, defeating Jessica Pegula in straight sets. In Stuttgart also, she looked in great touch and made it to the summit clash. However, Latvia’s Jelena Ostapenko didn’t give her much chance and won in straight sets.
Entering the Madrid Open, Sabalenka began her campaign with a straight-set win, in R64, over Russian Anna Blinkova. She then ousted Belgium’s Elise Mertens, in R32, before defeating American Peyton Stearns in R16. Then in the last eight, the three-time slam champion eliminated Ukraine’s Marta Kostyuk before taking down another Ukrainian, Elina Svitolina, in the semifinal to reach her third Madrid Open summit clash.
Gauff v Sabalenka: Head-to-Head
Both players have met nine times across WTA tournaments in their careers. Currently, Gauff leads the h2h tally 5-4 against Sabalenka. When they faced each other the last time, it was during the 2024 WTA Finals in the SF round. Back then, the American pro emerged victorious.
2024 WTA Finals SF: Gauff 7-6(4), 6-3
2024 Wuhan Open SF: Sabalenka 1-6, 6-4, 6-4
2024 Australian Open SF: Sabalenka 7-6(2), 6-4
2023 US Open F: Gauff 2-6, 6-3, 6-2
2023 Indian Wells Masters QF: Sabalenka 6-4, 6-0
2022 Toronto R16: Gauff 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(4)
2021 Italian Open R16: Gauff 7-5, 6-3
2020 Ostrava R16: Sabalenka 1-6, 7-5, 7-6(2)
2020 Lexington R16: Gauff 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-4
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win in three sets
Aryna Sabalenka has got an edge over Coco Gauff in terms of the win-loss record this season. With a phenomenal win percentage of 86.11, she’s won 31 of her 36 matches so far, compared to the American (14-6). But what about the history of these two players in Madrid?
Sabalenka has been extremely successful at the Madrid Open in recent seasons. In fact, she won the title in 2021 after defeating Ashleigh Barty. Then two years later, in 2023, she outperformed Iga Swiatek to win the WTA 1000 event for the second time. Last season, too, she was impressive as she made it to a second straight summit clash before losing to Swiatek. On the other hand, Gauff’s returns in Madrid have been modest to say the least. In her last three appearances (2022, 2023, and 2024), she crashed out in R16, R32 and then R16 again.
Coming onto their playing styles, Sabalenka’s known for her solid serves and aggression on the court. Combine that with her powerful groundstrokes which she uses to dictate rallies. Similarly, Gauff is an aggressive player as well, with powerful groundstrokes, alongside impressive athleticism on the court.
Considering the overall form of these two players in 2025, the Belarusian appears to have a crucial edge over Gauff. She knows how to hold nerves in big moments. While the American is leading the h2h battle and may pose a tough challenge, Aryna Sabalenka is still expected to win the final on Friday in three sets to clinch her third title this season.
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