Lincoln Riley’s fall from grace is sure disappointing to see. Riley went from being a 4-time, back-to-back conference championship winner to now being potentially fired from his head coach job. That makes 2025 an absolute test for Lincoln Riley, after failing to deliver what was expected of him in the past two seasons. He cannot afford slip-ups or near-misses this year, already being on the hottest seat possible. However, there are other things about the HC’s tenure that complicate things more for USC’s top brass.
USC had been in a stagnant slump before Lincoln Riley’s arrival. Since Pete Carroll’s departure, the Trojans have gradually lost their influence in the country as a reputed program. And that’s why USC had Lincoln Riley take charge of things, after ruling the Big 12 with his Oklahoma job. He came in as a coach who not only had 4 conference titles but also had two consecutive Heisman winners in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. His first season with the Trojans had fans getting their hopes up after having those same feats. From there, Riley went 8-3 in 2023, debuting in the Big 10.
He could escape some of the backlash since the season was his first in one of the most difficult conferences. But a second season with an even lower finish was now starting to get at fans. Joel Klatt, in a July 14 episode of his show, noted some games that Riley could have won, but failed. There’s the overtime against Penn State, and the Minnesota and Michigan games. “If he goes 7-5 again, then there’s going to be there’s going to be talk,” Klatt said. However, a bad 2025 season might not be the end of Riley’s USC stint. “Riley’s buyout would be probably around $70 million. But then you have to look at, like, is that worth it?”
NCAA, College League, USA Football: Notre Dame at Southern California Nov 30, 2024 Los Angeles, California, USA Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley leaves the field after the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Los Angeles United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum California USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xKirbyxLeex 20241130_tbs_al2_082
That 8-digit figure came with the expectation that Riley would dominate college football with USC. That turned out to be a blink-and-miss phenomenon, based on his record so far. However, Riley is dominating one crucial area of the sport. “He’s also right now, at least in the offseason, putting together what is the No.1 recruiting class in the country. It will not end up there, but it will be high. I think a top 10 class… That’s still the lifeblood of college football: talent acquisition. He’s doing that very well now,” Klatt added.
“They’ve got these close losses. If those turn into close wins, now you build momentum on the field. And then you have to think about if you fire your coach, everybody’s out. So, talent acquisition leaves. You don’t get that class… Everybody on the current roster is probably going to leave. So, you talk about really starting from zero,” the analyst noted further. Lincoln Riley’s collaboration with USC GM Jim Nagy has seen them lock down California for recruiting and host many blue-chippers in their 2026 squad (68%). USC can gain national importance in the future. But if they break the bank and let go of Lincoln Riley, it would undo all of their efforts that got them so high in the recruiting class.
“Once you start that clock, fire a coach, and lose all your players, you’re starting from scratch. Nobody wants to start from scratch. And so, for those reasons, even if it’s 7-5, although there’ll be conversations, there’ll be murmurs, I don’t think that they would actually pull the trigger on Lincoln Riley,” Klatt added. Despite the mounting pressure and growing fan frustration, the situation isn’t entirely without hope. In fact, the 2025 season may serve as Riley’s clearest opportunity yet to regain control of the narrative. With a more favourable schedule and an elite recruiting class on the horizon, the question is:
How high can Lincoln Riley go in the 2025 season?
With Riley missing out on a lot of milestones in the last few years, they have all added up for his ceiling this year. The National Championship may be a far reach, and so is the Big 10. But, Riley needs to publish a double-digit record this season. He’s done it before; he just has to figure out a way of replicating that success in the Big 10 this year. That can at least keep the Trojans in contention for a playoff spot, if not more. CBS Sports presented an outlook on how Riley’s 3rd run in the conference should go, if things are in his favor.
USC’s best-case situation is predicted at 11-1. Tom Fornelli acknowledged Riley’s experience of building great offenses and his nature of being a textbook quarterback guru. “Jayden Maiava plays like his next Heisman winner and the departures at receiver prove to be addition by subtraction,” he wrote in his hopes for the Trojans’ 2025 campaign. And, he has a promising defense that can also prove to be worthy of some appreciation. They also have a fairly easy schedule in the Big 10, missing the two strongest teams in the conference (Penn State and OSU).
But Lincoln Riley has to face Notre Dame, which Fornelli regards as the only loss in his season. And, there are some challenges in games against Illinois, which can be a wild card. Then, he has to face Big 10 phenom Oregon and legacy program Michigan. It won’t be an easy ride for the HC, given how tense the situation is for him. But this is a schedule that gives him the necessary room to work on improving his record. Can the Trojans HC hold on to his job and debut his elite 2026 class next year?
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