“My guess is I’m going to get booed.” That’s what John Calipari confessed before stepping onto the court in Lexington—once his kingdom, now enemy territory. For 15 years, he was the face of Kentucky basketball, leading the Wildcats to 400-plus wins, grooming 50 NBA draft picks, and producing nine All-NBA players. But on February 1, 2025, he returned as the head coach of Arkansas, walking into Rupp Arena with 21,266 fans ready to remind him he was no longer one of them.
ESPN’s betting line favored Kentucky by 8.5 points. To him, it didn’t matter. By the final buzzer, the Razorbacks had stunned the Wildcats 89-79, leaving the Big Blue Nation in shock.
Calipari had spent over a decade building Kentucky into a powerhouse, but now, with Arkansas rolling and Kentucky still searching for answers, it was clear—he wasn’t looking back. “Everybody wanted him to leave,” said Lexington Herald-Leader columnist Mark Story. “And he left. So why are you booing him?”
Maybe it wasn’t just about his departure—it was about how quickly he seemed to move on. Now, fresh off an NCAA Tournament win over Rick Pitino’s St. John’s, Calipari has left Kentucky firmly in the rearview mirror.
The past can be stubborn, but Calipari is not dwelling on it. In a recent appearance on NBC Sports’ The Dan Patrick Show, he was asked point-blank if he had to go further than Kentucky to prove a point. His response? “No, not worried about them. This season has been the most rewarding season. I’ve had seasons where we won more games and won national titles and Final Fours and Elite Eights. I’ve had all those. But what this team has been through to survive it, it’s been as rewarding as any season.”
And the results back him up. Arkansas finished 22-13, ninth in the SEC, and made a deep run in the conference tournament before earning a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Their first-round opponent? None other than Kansas, led by the highest-paid coach in the country, Bill Self. Many expected the Jayhawks to steamroll the Razorbacks, but Calipari’s squad refused to fold. In a game with ten lead changes, Arkansas held firm and stunned Kansas 79-72. It was an ugly night for the Jayhawks, but it was proof that Arkansas wasn’t here by accident.
Next up was Rick Pitino’s St. John’s squad, the nation’s top-ranked defense, (According to Ken Pom rankings). Arkansas had more fouls, more turnovers, and every reason to lose. But once again, they found a way. The final score: 75-66. Now, the Razorbacks stand in the Sweet 16, set to face a formidable Texas Tech team. Meanwhile, Kentucky has also advanced to the regional semifinals—just in the Midwest region. There’s a universe somewhere where both teams march to the Final Four and meet head-on. But in this one, Calipari isn’t caught up in the past.
He’s already faced Kentucky this season, and he’s already won. There are no hard feelings, no unfinished business. After his team’s win in Lexington, he didn’t gloat. He gave credit to his players and even had kind words for new Kentucky head coach Mark Pope. He acknowledged how surreal the moment felt, but it wasn’t about him anymore. “I looked up a couple times,” he admitted, “and I thought we were losing. Because I kept looking at Kentucky instead of Arkansas.”
That might have been true in February. But in March, there’s no mistaking where John Calipari stands.
Defying the Odds: Can Calipari and Arkansas shock Texas Tech?
But, the question isn’t about where Calipari stands—it’s about how far he can take this team. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor paints a daunting picture for John Calipari’s Arkansas squad again. The analytics give Texas Tech a commanding 72.5% chance to win, leaving Arkansas with just a 27.5% shot at pulling off another upset. On paper, it’s a mismatch. But March has a way of ignoring the numbers.
Texas Tech enters as the No. 3 seed, a team that finished second in the loaded Big 12 with a 15-5 conference record—four spots ahead of the Kansas team Arkansas just eliminated. The Red Raiders rank 8th overall in KenPom, backed by an elite top-five offense (125.4 ORtg) and a solid 37th-ranked defense (97.2 DRtg). Their stars include Jalen Toppin (18.1 PPG, 56.2 FG%), a versatile scorer who will test Arkansas’ defensive discipline.
Jan 14, 2025; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers guard Jordan Sears (1) attempts to steal the ball from Arkansas Razorbacks guard Boogie Fland (2) during the second half at Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
Arkansas, on the other hand, was a bubble team just weeks ago. The No. 10 seed Razorbacks fought through an up-and-down season, finishing 9th in the SEC before catching fire in March. They’re 36th in KenPom, with a defense-first identity (17th in DRtg, 95.1). They lack an offensive star like Toppin, but Jordan Davis (11.4 PPG, 39.2 FG%) has stepped up in key moments.
Recent history favors Texas Tech. The Red Raiders handled UNC Wilmington and Drake with relative ease, while Arkansas clawed past Kansas and St. John’s in physical, grind-it-out battles. And yet, the parallels between these two teams are striking.
Drake—a team that stunned No. 6 Missouri—couldn’t keep pace with Texas Tech in the Round of 32. But by that same logic, Kansas shouldn’t have fallen to Arkansas. The Razorbacks have already defied expectations twice. Betting odds say they won’t do it a third time.
But Calipari has built a career proving people wrong in March.
Arkansas (22-13) and Texas Tech (27-8) will meet Thursday at San Francisco’s Chase Center, home of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors. The stage is set, and the numbers favor the Red Raiders—but in the NCAA Tournament, the only stat that matters is the final score.
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