“What is the allure? Anybody has a chance! Because of Cinderella. That’s what gravitates you.” Stephen A. Smith hit the nail on the head. March Madness isn’t just a tournament—it’s a spectacle fueled by chaos, heartbreak, and the belief that on any given night, David can slay Goliath. It’s McNeese shocking Clemson. It’s 12th-seeded Colorado State defying expectations, taking down Memphis 78-70. It’s 11th-seeded Drake stunning Missouri to punch a ticket to the second round.
But what happens when Cinderella doesn’t crash the ball?
“If this continues, it will be the death of college basketball,” Stephen A. Smith warned on First Take, sounding the alarm over the impact of NIL and the transfer portal on mid-major programs. For decades, March Madness has thrived on unpredictability—the thrill of a no-name school toppling a powerhouse, the magic of an underdog making an impossible run. But as the landscape shifts, Smith fears that fairy-tale upsets could become a thing of the past. If talent keeps concentrating on powerhouse programs, there runs a risk of a widening gap that might swallow the parity March Madness thrives on.
Last year, No. 11 seed NC State rode a dream wave, rattling off nine straight wins—including four in the NCAA Tournament—to reach their first Final Four since 1983. Though they ultimately fell to No. 1 seed Purdue, their run became an instant classic, adding another chapter to Cinderella lore.
“If this continues, it will be the death of college basketball.” @stephenasmith weighs in on college basketball not having Cinderella teams pic.twitter.com/Km2HlCCjRv
— First Take (@FirstTake) March 24, 2025
And yet, history shows how rare these moments truly are. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only six double-digit seeds have reached the Final Four. Not one of them cut down the nets. The lowest-seeded champion remains the No. 8 Villanova Wildcats in 1985.
But is the transfer portal really killing parity—or just reshaping it? Jay Bilas sees the shift differently. While Smith argues that college basketball is losing its edge, Bilas believes NIL is actually keeping players in school longer. His take hinges on a key observation: financial incentives are keeping athletes in school rather than bolting for the NBA’s G League or overseas leagues. “If people say, ‘Well, the transfer portal really turned me off because I like to watch these players for longer,’ well, a lot of these players are staying longer because of NIL, and they’re probably still not watching,” he pointed out. Nostalgia, he argued, often warps perception: “Their memories of what they watched are usually inaccurate.”
So, is Cinderella on life support, or is she just wearing different shoes?
Bilas also took issue with criticisms comparing college basketball’s style unfavorably to the NBA. Some claim the NBA relies too much on isolation plays, but Bilas pushed back: “If they think it’s all isolation ball, they clearly don’t watch it. Because it’s not! There are more passes per possession in an NBA game in 24 seconds than in a college game.” His perspective challenges long-standing narratives that college basketball is a purer form of the sport and is a blunt rejection of the lazy narrative- likely fueled by his frustration with fans who romanticize college ball’s past.
The debate over NIL and the transfer portal isn’t just theoretical—it’s playing out on the court. This year’s NCAA Tournament has already featured transfers making an impact. Johnell Davis, who left Florida Atlantic for Arkansas, powered the Razorbacks to a Sweet 16 appearance by scoring 13 points in their second-round win over St. John’s. Meanwhile, JT Toppin, formerly of New Mexico, led Texas Tech past Drake with a dominant 25-point, 12-rebound performance. Chaz Lanier, after transferring from North Florida to Tennessee, helped his team defeat UCLA in a statement win.
For Smith, these moves signal a loss of Cinderella magic—players who once might have carried a mid-major on a deep tournament run are now taking their talents to bigger programs. Bilas, on the other hand, might argue that these transfers are simply adapting to an evolving system, one that offers them better opportunities while still maintaining the competitive nature of March Madness.
The battle for the soul of college basketball is far from over. The transfer portal and NIL have changed the game, but whether that change spells doom or evolution depends on perspective. But before the wreckage, let’s talk about how we got here—college basketball’s script is being rewritten in real time.
Stephen A.’s warning came too late—Cinderella Is Gone: March Madness Turns into March Monopoly
Glass slippers? Shattered. Fairy dust? Swept away. Colorado State, McNeese, and Drake pulled up to the ball ready for their Cinderella moment—McNeese even rocked some bold socks with Amir Khan’s face on them, because why not? They weren’t just here to dance; they were here to steal the crown.
But then the clock struck midnight, and the basketball gods had other plans. The elites rolled in, snatched the champagne, and turned the dance floor into a VIP-only zone. Every bracket-busting hopeful got sent home in a pumpkin.
For a tournament branded March Madness, this one’s been oddly predictable. Sure, No. 10 Arkansas sent No. 2 St. John’s packing, No. 6 Mississippi curb-stomped No. 3 Iowa State, and UConn nearly tripped over Florida. But look around—the Sweet 16 is missing its usual misfits.
For the first time since 2007, no team seeded No. 11 or lower made it past the first weekend. That’s a seismic shift. In 2021 and 2022, four double-digit seeds crashed the party. Last year, NC State, an 11-seed, rode a heater to the Final Four. This year? Nothing that suggests the same so far.
And it’s not a coincidence. The powerhouses planted their flags early and never flinched. Every top-10 KenPom team except Gonzaga (who got devoured by No. 2 Houston) is still alive. Eight more teams in the top 36—including Arkansas—made the cut.
This isn’t March Madness—it’s March Monopoly. The rich are getting richer, the underdogs are getting buried, and Cinderella? She’s not just missing—she has packed her bags and left for a city in the woods.
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