Italian Open 2025: Carlos Alcaraz vs Dusan Lajovic; Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction

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“I’m really happy to be here in Rome. It’s the second time that I’m going to play here, so I’m excited,” a confident Carlos Alcaraz said on Thursday ahead of his campaign at the Italian Open. After missing out on defending his Barcelona title and withdrawing from Madrid, due to an injury in his adductor, the four-time slam champion is now back to take the clay court by storm. Ahead of the Roland Garros (where he’s the defending winner), the Spaniard will look to gain a much-needed, dominant form in Rome. On Friday, he will kick off his campaign against Serbia’s Dusan Lajovic.

Carlos Alcaraz v Dusan Lajovic: Preview

Carlos Alcaraz’s 2025 season began on an impressive note back in January. He reached the QF stage of the Australian Open while looking confident to make it to the final and accomplish his Career Slam dream. Unfortunately, his hopes died down after 24-time slam champ Novak Djokovic ousted him with a score line of 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4. But the Spaniard didn’t lose his consistency. He kept it going in the next event at the Rotterdam, where he went on to win his maiden indoor hard court trophy.

In the summit clash there, Alcaraz bested Alex de Minaur with a score line of  6-4, 3-6, 6-2. In Doha, too, he showed a promising form, reaching the QF before losing against Jiri Lehecka.

Coming into the Indian Wells, he was expected to pull off a three-peat, having won the title in 2023 and 2024. Sadly, his dream broke after British star and eventual winner Jack Draper edged him out in the SF round. Then in Miami, Alcaraz faced a very unexpected result. In the first round itself, he was ousted by Belgium’s David Goffin. But the former World No.1 didn’t take long to get on the winning momentum. He succeeded in clinching his first-ever Monte Carlo Masters title. Alcaraz beat Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti in the final with a score line of 3-6, 6-1, 6-0. Just when it seemed he would win a second-straight ATP trophy in Barcelona, Denmark’s Holger Rune stopped his invincible run. In the final battle, Rune defeated him to win his first-ever ATP 1000 trophy.

Speaking of his opponent, Serbia’s Dusan Lajovic’s 2025 season has been mediocre to say the least. Back in January, he was ousted in R16 of the Brisbane International after losing to Jakub Mensik. Then down under, he faced a first round exit after losing to compatriot Miomir Kecmanović. At the Argentina Open, he couldn’t move past R16 before exiting in R32 in Rio. In his next three appearances, his poor run with the form continued.

At the Indian Wells Masters, Bucharest Open, and Monte Carlo Masters, Lajovic crashed out in R64, R32, and R64 respectively. At the Oeiras Open 4, he did reach the QF but eventually lost against Russian Roman Safiullin. Then at the Madrid Open, he once again failed to make a deep run following R128 exit against America’s Ethan Quinn. Coming into the Italian Open, Lajovic kicked off his campaign with a straight set win, in R128, over Japan’s Yoshihito Nishioka on Wednesday.

Alcaraz v Lajovic: Head-to-Head

Both players have met on four occasions across ATP events in their careers. Currently, Alcaraz has a clean record against Lajovic, leading the h2h tally 4-0. When they faced each other last time, it was during 2023’s Miami Open. Back then, the Spaniard emerged victorious in R32.

2023 Miami Open R32: Alcaraz 6-0, 7-6(5)
2023 Rio de Janeiro QF: Alcaraz 6-4, 7-6(0)
2023 Buenos Aires QF: Alcaraz 6-4, 6-2
2022 Australian Open R64: Alcaraz 6-2, 6-1, 7-5

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to win in straight sets

Carlos Alcaraz leads Dusan Lajovic by miles in terms of the singles stats in 2025 season. With a staggering win percentage of 82.75, he’s won 24 of his 29 matches compared to the Serbian (6-10). But how have these two players performed in Rome in the past?

Alcaraz has only played in Rome once, back in 2023, when he was ousted in R32 against Hungarian Fábián Marozsán. This time, he will look to improve the record. On the other hand, Lajovic’s experience has been average at this tournament. In his last three appearances (2022, 2023, and 2024), he was ousted in R64, R128, and R64 respectively.

Coming to their playing styles, Alcaraz is known for his exceptional athleticism on the court. He’s smooth when it comes to effectively adjusting movement between the baseline and the net. Add to that his stunning drop shots and his solid groundstrokes during long rallies. Lajovic, on the other side, is known for his strong serve alongside effective groundstrokes. His one-handed backhand is quite extraordinary as well.

Taking into consideration the overall form and h2h stats, Carlos Alcaraz seems to be the favorite in Friday’s battle. The Spaniard is expected to win in straight sets against Lajovic.

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