Some quarterbacks glide. Garrett Nussmeier charges in like a force of nature—unpredictable, powerful, and impossible to ignore. Every throw feels like it’s straight out of Retro Bowl: part brilliance, part gamble. That’s why LSU fans worship his talent but can’t help but worry about what’s coming next. Heading into 2025, it’s no longer about potential. It’s about performance. With Brian Kelly on the hot seat and LSU itching to break its postseason curse, Nussmeier doesn’t just need to be good—he’s got to be surgical like 2023 Jayden Daniels.
The 2024 numbers are glossy: 4,052 yards, 29 touchdowns, and enough deep bombs. But it’s the dirty dozen—12 picks—that haunt Death Valley. Nine came when LSU needed him most. Late in the season. Close games. Playoff window cracked open. And then, he slams it shut with a misread or forced ball. It’s not about talent. His mechanics are textbook, his arm’s a bazooka, and his football DNA? Straight out of the womb with a playbook. Thanks to his pops. But sometimes, he gets too gritty with plays—like trying to make 3 reads and failing to make a decision or making a terrible one. And the SEC? That’s not the place for guesswork.
On June 22nd, SEC Mike broke it down with some heat on ‘That SEC Football Podcast’ with Cousin Shane. “I think some people, you know, they have Garrett Nussmeier perhaps as the upcoming number one overall pick. That doesn’t mean he’s the best quarterback, but I’ve been going back, watching some LSU from last year, and that guy—man, he stood in the pocket, took some big-time shots.”
Nussmeier’s approach has always been aggressive—sometimes to a fault. It’s no surprise, really. Garrett grew up in a football household; his father, Doug Nussmeier, is the offensive coordinator for the New Orleans Saints. The football IQ is clearly there—but the discipline hasn’t always followed. The physical tools? Undeniable. Nussmeier has a lightning-quick release and the kind of deep ball that can change a game in one play. But sometimes, he just holds the ball too long. In 2024, he fumbled 3 times on just five attempts, mostly while waiting for a receiver to break open. Despite the inconsistencies, the upside remains enormous.
So Mike added, “I think Garrett Nussmeier—I’ll say it this way, Shane—I’d be surprised if he doesn’t lead the SEC in passing yards. Now is that a good thing? I don’t know. Because if he does that, that may mean LSU’s playing from behind some, or, you know, they’re having to throw it all over the yard. But I think Garrett Nussmeier, if he takes that next step, LSU will make the playoff. If he doesn’t, I think it’s going to be a lot harder.”
Many oddsmakers have him behind Arch Manning for the 2025 Heisman, in second place. And this year, his supporting cast is solid, too. Nussmeier will have a deep receiver room, led by Nic Anderson (10 touchdowns as a freshman at Oklahoma), Aaron Anderson, and Barion Brown, the SEC’s most dangerous return man. And a pretty solid O-line.
“I just think he’s going to have a great year going into year two,” said LSU head coach Brian Kelly in a spring interview. “I think the weapons around him obviously make a big difference.” But none of that matters if Nussmeier’s tossing prayers into triple coverage. And that brings us to Paul Finebaum’s LSU forecast.
Paul Finebaum’s big LSU Tigers 2025 prediction
When Paul Finebaum speaks on SEC football, folks listen. And recently, the ESPN analyst set a clear bar for Brian Kelly’s LSU squad: 10-2. That’s the number. “I think 10-2 is a good mark,” Finebaum said on The Paul Finebaum Show, emphasizing that expectations in Baton Rouge should be nothing less than playoff contention.
Finebaum’s optimism hinges on several returning pieces. LSU brings back 62% of its total production, ranking 38th in the nation, per ESPN. That includes Nussmeier, who now enters his second full season as a starter, and a receiver corps brimming with speed and playmaking. Still, not everyone shares Finebaum’s confidence.
ESPN’s Football Power Index slots LSU at No. 12 heading into the year—not exactly playoff territory. The 2025 schedule is manageable, but not without its potholes. LSU opens against Clemson on August 30 in what could be a tone-setting matchup. They can’t afford to stumble on the season opener, according to Finebaum. After Clemson, LSU gets Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M at home, but must travel to Alabama, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss. According to Athlon Sports, it’s the sixth-easiest schedule in the SEC, but that’s only on paper.
So where does LSU truly stand? On one hand, they’ve got one of the most explosive quarterbacks in the country, an experienced roster, and a proven coach in Brian Kelly. On the other hand, they’ve lost key assistants, like former OC Mike Denbrock, who helped lead Notre Dame to a national title game after leaving LSU. That transition could hurt more than people realize. Under Joe Sloan, Garrett balled out, but there’s a level to Sloan and Denbrock. End of the day, it all circles back to Nussmeier. His ability to take care of the football and lead with consistency will determine whether LSU is a playoff team or just another top-15 program.
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