Three of this year’s final four teams of the Stanley Cup playoffs made it to the Conference Finals last year as well. While the Florida Panthers had different opponents in the Carolina Hurricanes, the Dallas Stars vs. the Edmonton Oilers series was set to be a rematch. And the defending champions, at least on paper, looked like they would dominate the Carolina Hurricanes. Meanwhile, the Oilers vs. Stars clash looked to be far more interesting.
“There’s lots of things going to be similar,” said Leon Draisaitl, this season’s highest goalscorer with 52. “They know how we want to play, and we know how they want to play. It’s going to come down to execution,” he added about facing the Stars for a second straight year. However, the data gave the Stars the advantage, while the Panthers sat on top with the best odds to repeat their 2024 Stanley Cup success. But that was before the series started.
MoneyPuck.com gave the Florida Panthers the best shot, with a 50.1% chance to make the finals and a 28.8% chance to win it all. Meanwhile, last year’s runner-up came in at 4th with a 45.2% chance to make the playoffs and an 18.2% chance to win the Stanley Cup. Both the Dallas Stars and the Carolina Hurricanes were ahead of the Oilers with a 54.8% and 46.7% chance to make the finals.
However, the Oilers have flipped that prediction on its head. Although losing to the Stars in Game 1 dropped their chances down from 45.2% to just 12.7%, they fought back with a vengeance and currently hold a 3-1 series lead over the Stars after three back-to-back wins. The Dallas Stars stand on the brink with just a 14.2% chance to make it to the finals. The Canes haven’t fared better.
After Oilers win Game 4. pic.twitter.com/j9tByEcQnS
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) May 28, 2025
While they were also ahead of the Oilers on Money Puck’s predictions, they’re just one loss away from losing yet another conference final since winning the Stanley Cup in 2006. That being said, the Florida Panthers still hold the best odds of winning the cup at 52.4% compared to the Oilers’ 34.1%. So the question is: Can the other two NHL teams stage a comeback?
Can the challengers derail the Florida Panthers and Oilers?
After suffering three huge losses that saw the Florida Panthers score 16 goals against the Hurricanes, it looked like the Canes were heading for a repeat of the 2023 conference finals. That year, the Panthers swept the Canes 4-0. Thankfully, the Hurricanes showed that this year, they’ll not give up on the Stanley Cup dreams without a fight. Carolina entered Game 4 with a 15-game losing streak in the Eastern Conference finals.
Yet, their 16th EFC final game would finally see the Canes break their nearly two-decade curse. Despite the odds stacked against them, the Carolina Hurricanes managed to snap the losing streak, handing the Florida Panthers their first defeat in the series. Interestingly, the Dallas Stars will head to Game 5 against the Oilers with a similar disparity.
Image via Facebook/Florida Panthers
While it took the Canes nearly two decades to win a conference final game, the Dallas Stars have a 0-16 record of winning a series whenever they’ve fallen behind 3-1 in a best-of-seven series, as per ESPN. Meanwhile, the Oilers have a 17-1 record of winning when they lead a series 3-1. That being said, the Hurricanes have already pulled off a miraculous feat. Could the Stars do it too?
Mikko Rantanen sure believes they have a chance. “Maybe we’re trying to shoot even too hard, trying too much, maybe offensively. Yeah, got to relax a little bit,” said the Dallas Stars forward. Now we’ll have to wait and see if these two teams can stop the Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers from having their Stanley Cup rematch.
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