If you thought the Bryce Underwood to Michigan was bulletproof, ESPN might have cracked the windshield. Of course, the optimism is high. Sherrone Moore was able to flip the No. 1 player in the 2025 class from LSU with some help from influential people. But the Wolverines, riding the momentum of landing the 5-star QB, aren’t exactly glowing in ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index (FPI) projections. In fact, the numbers don’t just raise eyebrows; they dump ice water on the hype.
Let’s break it down. As of June 3, ESPN’s FPI ranks Michigan No. 17 nationally to start the 2025 season. That’s not terrible unless you’re a Wolverine, where anything outside the top 10 feels like a bad look. For context, three SEC teams lead the race with Texas, Georgia, and Alabama, while Ohio State sits at No. 4, the first Big Ten team on the list.
Michigan’s FPI is 14.6, tied with Oklahoma, in comparison to the Longhorns’ 28.5 and the Buckeyes’ 23.8. And the projected win-loss sits at 8.4-3.7, a regression from last season’s 8.0-5.0. So much for the new dynasty! The worst thing for Sherrone Moore’s side is that three of their Big 10 competitors are in the top 6 as they languish out of the top 10. Penn State (21.5), Oregon (20.5), and Ohio State are rightfully among the top teams.
As for the 6-win projection for bowl eligibility, Michigan has a 94.2%, surpassing six of the 16 teams ahead of them. As for their conference title-winning projection, they only hold 6% of the chance compared to OSU (40.3%), Penn State (25.1%), and Oregon (19.1%). As for the playoff odds, the Wolverines have 25.3%, still better than three teams ahead of them (Auburn, South Carolina, and Oklahoma). But it’s a blow for a team that once made three straight playoff appearances from 2021 to 2023 and even won a national championship in 2023.
Coming to national championship odds, Michigan has a 2.6% chance of appearing for the national championship game with just 1.0% to win it. The heavy favorite is Steve Sarkisian’s squad with 24.1% to win the natty, followed by the Bulldogs with 17.9% and the Crimson Tide and OSU tied at 10.8%.
The Wolverines fan base will argue this is just off-season math, but these projections factor in returning productions, schedule difficulty, recruiting classes, and coaching changes. And despite the hype of the nation’s top QB, ESPN’s message is that Michigan’s not built for the long haul, at least not this year.
Bryce Underwood’s first big test will come in Week 2
Michigan opens against New Mexico on August 30. But it’s the next game that’ll put his hype to the test. Notice how Oklahoma is one step ahead of Michigan on ESPN’s preseason rankings? Brent Venables and the Sooners may have suffered offensively in 2024 but this season’s bringing new weapons in Washington State transfer QB John Mateer and his OC Ben Arbuckle. And that’s a fear CFB insider David Pollack voiced out — “I think Oklahoma is gonna come in with more continuity with quarterback and play caller.” And he’s got a point.
OU might have one of the most underrated QB-room situations in the nation. John Mateer, who threw for 3,139 yards and 29 TDs and rushed for 826 yards and 15 TDs, reunited with his OC in Norman. That’s plug-and-play chemistry most teams can only dream of. And the Sooners’ defense isn’t going to go easy on Bryce Underwood, who’ll be taking his first collegiate snap in a couple of months. As Pollack added, “Oklahoma has the best defensive line in the SEC.” Names like Jayden Jackson, Damonic Williams, Gracen Halton, and David Stone anchor the trenches.
And that’s what makes the ESPN projections sting more. The Bryce Underwood era may be coming, but his welcome party might get rougher than expected.
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