Dan Hurley’s UConn squad seems to be on thin ice. The Huskies’ hopes for a historic three-peat could come crashing down before the Sweet 16 — at least if ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith’s prediction holds up. The warning shot came on First Take, where another analyst painted a brutal picture of UConn’s March Madness path. The Huskies have silenced doubters before — but can they do it again?
While the segment initially focused on Cooper Flagg’s Friday night matchup, the conversation quickly pivoted when host Molly Qerim pressed about UConn’s chances. Seth Greenberg, a two-time ACC Coach of the Year, didn’t hold back.
“Yeah, you can’t be fortunate to get to the second round. There’s no way they can beat Florida. Florida’s just too good. They’re too deep, too athletic,”
The analyst didn’t stop there, highlighting UConn’s Achilles’ heel — backcourt play — as a major problem. “They come out in waves to guard play, which is obviously the Achilles heel for this UConn team.”
The numbers back up the skepticism. UConn finished the regular season with a 121.9 offensive rating (14th) and a defensive rating of 102.6 (94th). Their 6-6 record in Quad 1 games reflects their inconsistency against top-tier opponents. Meanwhile, Florida looks like a powerhouse. Ranked No. 2 on KenPom, the Gators boast a 128.6 offensive rating (1st) and a 92.4 defensive rating (10th) — a lethal combination. They’ve also racked up nine Quad 1 wins without a single loss in that category.
Florida’s dominance extends beyond the stat sheet. The Gators head into March Madness riding a six-game win streak, including a 99-94 win over Alabama. The team’s strength lies in its deep backcourt, led by Walter Clayton Jr. (17.5 ppg), Will Richard (13.6 ppg), and Alijah Martin (14.5 ppg). Their ability to pressure on both ends of the court makes them a matchup nightmare. UConn’s guard play, meanwhile, remains shaky — and that’s a glaring problem against a team like Florida.
Stephen A. Smith didn’t mince words either: “I completely 1000% agree with coach. UConn’s going home before the Sweet 16. They’re going to win their first-round game, and then after that, they’re going to go up against Florida — and Danny Hurley is going to have an early offseason.”
Greenberg and Smith’s brutal assessment stems from UConn’s up-and-down season. The Huskies have shown flashes of brilliance, but their inability to consistently handle pressure from elite teams has raised doubts. Florida, by contrast, is built for deep runs. The Gators’ frontcourt — featuring Rueben Chinyelu (6’10”), Alex Condon (6’11”), Thomas Haugh (6’9”), and Micah Handlogten (7’1”) — gives them a size and depth advantage that few teams can match. Their rebounding margin of +8.2 reflects just how dominant they’ve been on the glass.
So, UConn’s path through the West Region is brutal. Florida enters as the No. 1 seed, set to open against Norfolk State. If they advance, they’ll likely face UConn in the second round — a matchup that could spell the end for Dan Hurley’s squad. The Gators have won 12 of their last 13 games, and ESPN analysts Jay Williams, Seth Greenberg, Jay Bilas, and Rece Davis have all picked Florida to win it all. And the coach’s confidence is strong too. “Our team talent is exceptional, and that’s why I think we have a chance to make a deep run,” Florida coach Todd Golden said.
The Huskies are currently listed at 80-1 to win the national title, 40-1 to make the Final Four, and 11-1 to reach the Elite Eight. Florida, on the other hand, is a popular pick for a reason. They rank 17th in strength of schedule (+14.42) and have proven they can handle the spotlight.
Hurley has built UConn into a powerhouse, but even dynasties have limits. If the Huskies can’t fix their backcourt issues, the road to San Antonio could be short-lived. And if Florida sends UConn packing early, Greenberg’s reality check will feel more like a prophecy.
However, Dan Hurley will have to face a daring Oklahoma Sooners team before even thinking about the Gators.
UConn faces Oklahoma threat as Stephen A. doubts Hurley’s march hopes
The Sooners, currently a No. 9 seed, made a wild run in the Big 12 conference tournament but were narrowly stopped by Mark Pope and his Kentucky Wildcats. If not for former Sooner Otega Oweh’s last-second baseline jumper, Oklahoma might have pulled off the upset. The scoreboard — 85-84 — speaks for itself.
While much of the conversation around UConn’s tournament path has focused on Florida, overlooking Oklahoma would be a dangerous mistake. The Sooners have proven they can hang with elite competition, and their balanced attack makes them a serious threat. Oklahoma enters the NCAA Tournament with a 20-13 record, including an 18-15 record against the spread (ATS). Though they’ve struggled on the road (2-7), their strong home record (12-5) reflects how dangerous they can be when they find their rhythm.
Nov 6, 2024; Storrs, Connecticut, USA; Connecticut Huskies forward Liam McNeeley (30), forward Alex Karaban (11) and Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley react after a play against the Sacred Heart Pioneers in the second half at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images
UConn, the No. 3 seed in the Big East, sits at 23-10 overall. The Huskies have been solid at home (14-2) and decent on the road (7-4), but their inconsistent play down the stretch raises concerns. Their 15-18 ATS record shows that they’ve had trouble covering spreads — a sign of shaky performances even when they win.
Statistically, Oklahoma and UConn match up in interesting ways. Oklahoma shoots 47.2% from the field (61st nationally) and 37.0% from three (54th), while UConn holds opponents to 42.3% shooting (91st). The Sooners’ scoring efficiency could challenge UConn’s defensive schemes. UConn averages 78.8 points per game (65th), slightly ahead of Oklahoma’s 78.0 points per game (68th).
The Sooners’ Achilles’ heel is their rebounding. They rank 324th in overall rebounds per game (29.2), compared to UConn’s impressive 25.4 defensive rebounds per game (2nd nationally). However, Oklahoma makes up for it with efficient guard play. The Sooners rank 11th in free throws made (17.5 per game) and hit 79.4% from the line (7th nationally) — a key factor in close games.
The battle inside will be pivotal. Oklahoma’s frontcourt, led by 6-foot-10 John Hugley IV and 6-foot-9 Sam Godwin, faces UConn’s size and physicality. UConn ranks 1st in blocks per game (2.9), led by their imposing interior presence. If Oklahoma can hold its own on the boards and get to the free-throw line, they could create major problems for Hurley’s squad.
Hurley knows his team needs to lock in defensively and sharpen their execution if they hope to silence the critics. It starts with Oklahoma on March 21 at 9:25 p.m. ET at the Lenovo Center.
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