Once in a while, NASCAR serves up a rookie story that leaves us in awe. Remember when Austin Cindric shocked the world by winning the Daytona 500 as a rookie in 2022? Or when Tony Stewart (1999) and Jimmie Johnson (2001) lit up the turn of the century as the only two rookies to win three races in their rookie year? Moments like these remind fans that anything can happen when the green flag drops.
Similarly, in 2024, Denny Hamlin is keeping a watchful eye on one particular Cup Series rookie. With road course magic but mid-pack struggles elsewhere, the Kiwi’s NASCAR venture has been a mixed bag. And if Denny Hamlin’s recent warning is anything to go by, the playoff picture might be one road course race away from chaos.
Denny Hamlin sounds an alarm on Shane van Gisbergen’s playoff potential
In a candid discussion on Actions Detrimental, Denny Hamlin highlighted the unpredictable nature of NASCAR’s playoff system. He referenced past instances where underdog drivers disrupted expectations. “We had this whole Harrison Burton discussion last year on a car being 30-something in points and winning and being part of the playoffs,” Hamlin recalled. Last year, Burton got his inaugural Cup Series playoffs spot after winning the 2024 Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona in August. It was a miraculous win, aided by Parker Retzlaff’s shove at the end, which put Burton ahead of Kyle Busch.
Denny Hamlin feels such a story is possible for 2025 Cup Series rookie Shane van Gisbergen. The 3x Supercars champion from New Zealand lit up the Cup Series in 2023 by winning his debut race at the Chicago Street Course. He went from being unknown on the NASCAR grid to the next big road course ringer. However, after a full season of Xfinity racing in 2024, SVG has failed to translate his road course prowess to NASCAR’s oval-dominated schedule. Denny Hamlin expressed concerns about Shane van Gisbergen’s potential impact on the playoffs. “When Shane Van Gisbergen wins a road course this year, and has run almost last in all the other races, like just prepare yourselves, that’s coming,” he warned.
The current playoff format allows drivers to secure a spot with a single win, provided they are in the top 30 in points. This system can lead to scenarios where consistent performers are edged out by one-time winners. Hamlin cautioned, “I think yes, you’ll see a few in there that you know are probably you would consider underdogs or surprise winners. But it’s going to be because something wacky happens. Nine overtime finishes, or someone runs it. People run out of fuel, someone makes it like that’s the only way.”
This was a sly nod to Joey Logano winning his way into the playoffs in 2024 after a quintuple overtime triumph at Nashville last season. While Logano is certainly no underdog regarding winning a championship with three titles to his belt and being the defending series champion, an average finish of 17th during the 2024 regular season didn’t necessarily scream ‘title favorite.’ And SVG’s numbers in 2025 are even worse.
Shane van Gisbergen’s transition to NASCAR has been challenging. “It’s been a struggle for sure, more than I thought it was going to be for him… “It’s hard. Running in the Cup Series is hard, the competition is hard. He’s trying to learn a new technique, a new craft. That’s really hard to do,” Hamlin noted. Shane van Gisbergen has finished mostly in the low 30s this season. His best performance so far has, unsurprisingly, been on a road course, with a 6th place finish at the Circuit of The Americas. He is currently P34 in the standings and had a torrid time at Bristol, wrecking himself and Cody Ware by going too hard out of a corner.
SVG took part in select Cup Series races in 2024 for Kaulig Racing while running the Xfinity Series full-time as well. His results at ovals were not inspiring, however, his road course results continued to impress, with a 2nd place finish at Watkins Glen and winning the pole at the Charlotte ROVAL, which is a road course-oval hybrid. Denny Hamlin feels that Trackhouse Racing has got him in just for these road courses. Hamlin added, “This is not what he [SVG] grew up doing. I think they’re [Trackhouse Racing], you know, throwing him in there just hoping he wins a road course race puts him in the playoffs, moves their charter ranking up.”
Well, SVG is in dire need of a boost in form, and with the next road course race still over a month away in Mexico City, there’s no question that the Kiwi will be counting the days. Do you think SVG can win a road course and lock himself into the playoffs in 2025? Let us know in the comments!
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