Legend Killer – that is the reputation Ilia Topuria has earned coming into UFC 317. ‘El Matador’s last two wins were KOs against Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway ( a career first for Max). At International Fight Week, Topuria can lay waste to another legend in Charles Oliveira. The majority seem to be favoring the ex-feathweight champion to score another KO win. But can ‘Do Bronxs’ shock the world? Will we see the Spaniard’s super villain arc come to an end in Vegas on Saturday? We have a few plot points we’d like to discuss.
Beaming with confidence and lightweight power, Topuria claimed, “I feel so powerful at 155 pounds that when I touch Oliveira’s chin, it’ll explode.” But Oliveira was unfazed. He seemed to have faith in his own hands, which have already downed names like Justin Gaethje. And that’s just one weapon in the underdog’s arsenal.
Can Ilia Topuria fight going backwards?
Not too long ago, Alexander Volkanovski had a conversation with Fox Sports Australia’s Niko Pajarillo about UFC 317. ‘The Great’ claimed, “Charles Oliveira is gonna come forward, he’s gonna press like he always does.” The Brazilian is one of the most aggressive and forward-moving fighters in the UFC. He has a tendency to force engagements. In the clinch, he can make you carry his weight and land devastating knees like he did to Dustin Poirier at UFC 269.
This habit has already helped him secure some classic wins. Back at UFC 262, the Brazilian constantly moved forward against Michael Chandler. And ultimately, secured a win via a second-round KO. At UFC 274, Oliveira showcased his well-balanced fighting style and forced ‘The Highlight’ into a submission after knocking him down with a straight right. Gaethje stated on record later that he tasted metal when Oliveira hit him. What does this mean for Topuria?
Topuria is used to setting the pace and putting gradual pressure on his opponents. But with ‘Do Bronx’ trying to press forward, the Spaniard might have to adapt a backfoot strategy – He could be forced to put on a defensive stance and counter-strike. Of course, with a backfoot strategy, Topuria can set traps with his counters. He can make Oliveira waste his energy while chasing and scrambling for control during a clinch. But here’s the problem – We haven’t really seen the Spaniard on the back foot.
‘The Great’, in his interview with Pajarillo, expressed similar concerns. He wondered, “Will Ilia want to just be forced into that fight, or will he want to play his game first? Will he be on the back foot? Haven’t seen Ilia on the back foot. And I think that will be hard. So, I just don’t see that happen.” Topuria likes to press forward as well. And while he does that, he usually makes sure to slip in some strikes as he tries to dodge Oliveria’s attacks. Volkanovski also claimed that ‘El Matador’ was pretty stoic – That is, getting hit doesn’t really faze him. But can he use his plan for ‘The Great’ against someone like Oliveira? Well, not really!
Volkanovski continued, “I think Charles is going to be pressing forward. I feel like he might have to maybe go on the back foot, or just collide.” But even if the former featherweight champion manages to adopt a backfoot strategy, he’d still have to overcome the size difference between him and Oliveira.
Charles Oliveira should use his frame to tilt the scales at UFC 317
Charles Oliveira is 3 inches taller than Ilia Topuria (5’10”). The Brazilian has a reach of 74 inches, while his opponent is restricted to 69 inches. Yes, Topuria has landed more significant strikes per minute (4.69 SLpM) than Oliveira (3.40 SLpM). But the former lightweight champ has better accuracy. However, if we talk about defense, ‘El Matador’ gains points once again, with 64% significant strikes defended, compared to 49% for Oliveira. Topuria scores higher points with takedown accuracy and defense, as well. Plus, Topuria is on a 16-fight undefeated streak, while Oliveira has a record of 35-10-0.
However, the Brazilian star is comparatively a much bigger fighter. Yes, Topuria claims to feel natural as a 155-pounder. But Oliveira has been handling lightweights at the highest level for years now. In-cage experience against names like Poirier. Gaethje and Makhachev gives the Brazilian an edge in experience. He has defeated strong opponents, like Dustin Poirier and ‘Iron’, with tactical clinches. And he might deploy the same on Saturday night.
The lightweight contender, Mateusz Gamrot, weighed in on the size difference and said, “I think Oliveira is a really big guy. Ilia is a short guy. I think this [size] is going to be much different for both guys. I think this is going to be an advantage for Charles Oliveira, and he gets the win.” Additionally, the #2 lightweight contender has high kicks that can do some serious damage.
During Topuria’s sole lightweight UFC outing against Jai Herbert, he took a headkick that sent him to the canvas. The error? A chink in his otherwise solid boxing defense. Herbert forced him into an exchange and snuck in the kick when Ilia tried to go for an overhand right. If Charles can do the same from range, he could be a 2-time lightweight champion this weekend.
Josh Thomson echoed similar sentiments on, the Weighing In Podcast, “Charles Oliveira is dangerous, I mean he’s got the height, um, you know, he’s got the push kicks, he’s got good leg kicks. He can kick the head really well, you know, he can jump on the gilly extremely well. I mean I want you guys to remember, Ilia lost a takedown and almost gave his back up, or was giving up his back to Bryce Mitchell.”
Yet, ‘Do Bronx’ has to be wary of his ex-featherweight opponent. ‘El Matador’ has already KOed Max Holloway, who has a build similar to that of Oliveira, but with a shorter reach. The Brazilian has one more weapon in his arsenal, and a submission game that gave him the record of most UFC finishes. But the greatest fuel is his emotions linked with a victory at UFC 317.
‘Do Bronx’ has emotional factors motivating him
The Brazilian lightweight star is a father of two – Thayla and Dominick. And that’s who Oliveira fights for. During an interview with the UFC, Vitoria, Oliveira’s wife, said, “It’s a promise he made to Dom. Because he already won a belt for Thayla, and he will win another one for Dominic. And that promise will be kept.” With his 7-month-old son backing him up, Oliveira might just claim the win. The last time he came into a fight emotionally, he KO’d Beneil Dariush in the opening round. Before that, it was against Justin Gaethje in front of the latter’s home crowd in Arizona.
Apart from the promise to his family, ‘Do Bronx’ also has to fulfill his legacy. He direly needs to redeem himself and reclaim the lightweight championship belt. Losing the title to Islam Makhachev at UFC 280 visibly broke Oliveira. Following that, he has lost 1 bout and won 2. Now, with a win over Topuria, he can certainly reclaim his honor atop the lightweight throne.
For now, Oliveira has opened up on his stance regarding the International Fight Week. He said, “He’s got his hands, he’s got ground game, he’s got it all. But I’m really thinking about myself. I’m thinking about how happy I’m gonna be in that moment, and what I have to do in that fight.” His mind is already fixed on 3 things – Family, Legacy, and Redemption. And come this Saturday night, we might get to see the underdog rise victorious once again.
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