It’s been a turbulent ride for Lincoln Riley at USC. After arriving with fanfare and sky-high expectations, he’s posted a respectable 26–14 record—but not without raising some eyebrows. His debut season promised much with an 11–3 run, but things cooled quickly: an 8–5 mark in Year 2, followed by a 7–6 campaign in Year 3. With a fourth season looming, the pressure is on. Yet, somehow, while USC stumbles on the field, Riley and his recruiting war room—anchored by Chad Bowden—continue dominating the talent acquisition game. And now, the landscape just tilted further in their favor.
The NCAA House settlement, officially approved earlier this month, didn’t just change the rules—it cracked the entire system open. College athletics has officially entered the revenue-sharing era, and USC is uniquely built to thrive in it. On June 27th, CFB analyst Sam (host of the College Football with Sam podcast) explained precisely why Lincoln Riley is sitting pretty: “USC benefits from this massive loophole in the new NIL rules,” Sam said. “If you are in a big city with a lot of businesses, plenty of wealth, industry, and you have a large donor base that’s close to home—you have the ultimate combination.”
So, the new rules allow NIL deals to be judged partly by geographic market value. That means deals made in major cities like Los Angeles can legally carry more weight—more money—than similar offers from less commercially vibrant locales. If a USC athlete gets a major NIL deal from a company based in L.A., it’s much easier to justify that deal as fair-market under the new rules than, say, the same deal in Ames, Iowa.
Sam broke it down: “And this loophole here says: the location of an NIL deal may come into play for determining if value is fair. Los Angeles marketing deals are some of the best—and clearly, because of the standard of living in California, and their tax rules, and more complicated things that I’m not going to talk about because I don’t know too much about them—but California is known to be expensive.” That gives USC an undeniable recruiting weapon. Los Angeles isn’t just a beautiful city—it’s also a gold mine of marketing potential, with countless Fortune 500 companies, entertainment giants, and billionaire alumni ready to write checks.
Right now, USC’s average NIL valuation for its 2026 class is already sitting at $163k per athlete. With the House settlement in play, analysts project that figure could climb significantly. The legal framework now favors high-dollar urban markets, and USC is poised to leverage that to maximum effect.
“Their NIL deals, consequentially, are going to have to be larger in value,” Sam explained, pointing to the high cost of living and elevated market expectations in California. “And they have a lot of wealthy—ultra wealthy—alumni.” This NIL loophole, combined with USC’s existing resources and Riley’s recruiting prowess, is already producing results.
With 30 commits in their 2026 class, including a five-star tight end and 19 four-stars, USC’s war chest is clearly open for business.
Let’s not pretend Riley’s just throwing money around without a plan. His recruiting game is on fire. After critics dragged him for not landing local Cali talent, Riley’s out here flipping Oregon commits and locking in Golden State beasts like Elbert Hill, Simote Katoanga, and Jaimeon Winfield. That 60% of the class is in-state? Not an accident. That’s Riley mending fences with high school coaches, shaking hands, and flashing USC’s NIL muscle. This class is the blueprint—stack local talent, stack NIL cash, and ride the House wave.
What’s more telling is that all this momentum is unfolding before the full force of the House settlement kicks in. As the framework gets codified, USC will be able to shape its NIL offers more strategically than ever. The access to legitimate high-dollar partnerships gives USC a competitive edge that can’t be easily matched. Unlike schools scrambling to piece together booster collectives and local deals, USC has a built-in NIL machine ready to roll.
LA Times dives into USC’s big money moves after House deal shake-up
On June 1st, the NCAA House settlement changed college sports forever. Revenue sharing between schools and athletes is now the law of the land, and every program is being forced to rethink how they operate. But USC? They’ve been preparing.
In a detailed report for the Los Angeles Times, Ryan Kartje broke down how USC plans to handle the new era. “Each of USC’s 23 athletic programs will benefit from the advent of revenue sharing,” Kartje wrote, “in one of three ways.” While UCLA is opting to split its $20.5 million equally among all athletes, USC is likely to keep a heavier focus on football.
According to Kartje’s sources, USC’s model from the preliminary settlement suggests a 75/15/5 split: 75% of the money to football, 15% to men’s basketball, and 5% to women’s basketball. The remaining 5% to 10% will go to non-revenue sports, but not indiscriminately. USC will be strategic. “Adding a scholarship could make a more significant difference than cutting a check,” Kartje notes. “But it also means less to directly pay athletes who are looking for checks.”
This balancing act—between investing in long-term development and satisfying immediate player expectations—will define how well USC navigates the next few years. And under the guidance of athletic director Jennifer Cohen, there’s optimism. Cohen’s leadership has been credited with restoring institutional alignment and ambition. Her ability to connect with both traditional boosters and NIL-minded partners has helped USC build a modern recruiting and revenue infrastructure.
There are still many unanswered questions about how the House settlement will shake out in practice. How will schools enforce the cap? What role will third-party NIL collectives play? Will athletes flock to big cities like L.A. in droves, or will some opt for programs that offer more playing time and structure?
What’s clear is this: USC isn’t reacting—they’re planning. Their geographical advantage, alumni network, and commitment to elite-level football give them an edge in the new college football arms race. Lincoln Riley now has more than talent on his side—he has leverage. The House settlement might be a headache for some coaches around the country. But in Los Angeles, it just might be the fuel for USC’s next championship run.
All Lincoln Riley needs to do is somehow make it through the 2025 season alive—then he can enjoy the fruits of USC’s NIL loophole advantage.
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