The pressure cooker in Norman is starting to hiss. After a rocky 6–7 welcome to the SEC, Brent Venables enters the 2025 campaign with the kind of expectation that leaves no room for regression. Last year’s product was an eyesore offensively and barely recognizable from Oklahoma’s high-octane past. And while Venables is trying to redefine this program’s identity with a defensive-first blueprint, patience is running thin. One SEC coach anonymously framed it as a “hot seat situation,” and the optics back that up. But some believe this team could be a bigger playoff contender than most people think.
Crain & Company’s host didn’t hold back when it came to Oklahoma’s potential. “One thing that I just don’t think a lot of people across the country are going to realize just yet is how good Oklahoma is going to be,” David Cone said. “And I’ve been trying to convince people of that. Not just adding John Mateer, the quarterback who I thought was the most sought-after quarterback in the trade too… Brent Venables has been able to get enough seasons under his belt.” The comparison drawn was with Steve Sarkisian’s timeline at Texas. The coach who took his early bruises while instilling culture and building a roster from the inside out.
“We got to take our lumps the first couple years, and we’re doing some changes in the culture and getting the defensive side of the football right.” The belief now? Oklahoma Sooners have crossed the developmental threshold. “I think Oklahoma at this point now, where they’ve had enough pieces. They are going to be a real threat,” Cone added.
For now, the Sooners are projected to win about 6.5 games by most experts. The main thing everyone’s talking about? Their tough schedule with all the big matchups.“Everybody’s trying to get to 10-2 to make the College Football Playoff. You’ve to play an SEC schedule and then host Michigan in Week Two, where their head coach used to play for Oklahoma. I can’t wait for this matchup.”
The X-factor in this reboot is John Mateer, and expectations are high for a reason. The Washington State transfer threw for 3,139 yards and 29 touchdowns last year, tacking on seven picks and a total of 44 career all-purpose scores. His tape is electric—he’s fearless in the pocket, makes off-platform throws, and brings mobility that OU’s system sorely lacked last year. What’s more, new OC (old for Mateer) Ben Arbuckle arrives with a vertical passing philosophy that suits Mateer’s deep ball instincts.
Mark your calendars, Sooner Nation!
Kickoff + TV info set for Illinois State, Michigan, Temple and the Red River Rivalry
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— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) May 29, 2025
“They’re banking on an instant impact from Arbuckle and Mateer the way Vanderbilt brought in the New Mexico State coach/QB combo. That could happen,” an anonymous SEC coach said. Arbuckle is young, inventive, and his tempo-based approach could be the jolt the Sooners’ flatlined offense needs.
The bar is low. Oklahoma finished dead last in the SEC in passing yards per game last season, a fall from grace that seemed unfathomable for a program once synonymous with quarterback wizardry. But not all of it was Venables’ doing. “Their receivers were nonexistent last year, but a lot of that was injury,” the anonymous coach added. That checks out—key playmaker Deion Burks barely got out of first gear, playing just five games after transferring from Purdue. He’s expected to return fully healthy, and if he stays on the field, John Mateer gets a dynamic outside threat who can stretch the field vertically and open up the intermediate game.
The early litmus test comes fast and furious. A Week Two showdown with Michigan—led by new OC Chip Lindsey—will be a tone-setter. That game alone could steer the perception of Oklahoma’s season. Get past that, and a 10–2 finish with an SEC slate suddenly looks plausible, especially with winnable home games in conference play. But anything short of progress might make Brent Venables’ seat impossible to cool. This isn’t about fair or unfair—it’s about reality in the SEC.
Oklahoma’s hope rides on John Mateer & Co.
Things may not have gone according to plan for OU last season. There’s a renewed sense of belief brewing in Norman—and much of that optimism is riding on the arm (and legs) of one man: John Mateer.
The WSU transfer has quickly become the face of the Sooners’ rebound hopes. Paul Finebaum hit the nail on the head when he broke it down on The Paul Finebaum Show. “I think that’s it… Everyone is so high on Mateer, and I think that is a transformation in that fact that there was no wide receiver room last year; everybody was hurt.”
He’s not wrong. The Sooners were down bad when it came to offensive weapons last season—injuries ravaged their depth. But now? Reinforcements have arrived. Oklahoma added Jaydn Ott, one of the top running backs in the portal from Cal, to bring some sizzle to the backfield. And in the passing game, JaVonnie Gibson and Jer’Michael Carter—two talented wide receiver transfers—bring much-needed juice. It’s a brand-new cast, a brand-new vibe, and maybe, just maybe, a brand-new outcome.
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