When a college football HC fails in Year 3, the outlook gets sour. All eyes get locked on the program’s execution and delivery. And the expectations are higher especially when you have the pieces to rewrite the narrative. That’s Brent Venables now, coaching for his job in 2025. After Oklahoma’s second 6-7 season in three years, the air around Norman smells like pressure. “The expectations here and in the locker room are to win at the very highest level and to compete for a championship,” he said at the SEC Media Days trying to sell hope. But everyone in the room knew the stakes.
Win now or pack your bags. That’s the reality for Brent Venables heading into 2025. And he doesn’t need just wins. He needs signature wins, especially in November. If what Tyler McComas of KREF says is right, a 7-5 record this season won’t cut it for Oklahoma. “I think you legitimately need to go into the month of November as a college football playoff contender,” he said during his appearance on That SEC Podcast on July 23. And he’s got a strong case.
This offseason, OU went all-in to revamp its player and coaching roster. After a disastrous season with QB Jackson Arnold, Brent Venables resorted to the portal to fish out a gem in John Mateer, who also brought with him his OC in Ben Arbuckle. Then there’s another massive win with GM Jim Nagy. The Sooners also brought in four other coaches, including John Kuceyeski, Kevin Wilson, Wes Goodwin, and Nate Dreiling. OU’s road to redemption isn’t paved in gold. It’s littered with SEC landmines.
Nov 12, 2022; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables argues a call with an official during the first quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
A stacked conference schedule includes Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU at home, while facing South Carolina, Tennessee, and the Brent Venables’ dreaded game against Alabama at Bryant-Denny stadium. And then, outside of the conference, Texas and Michigan await. Can the Sooners run that gauntlet without tripping to get to the playoffs? The November slate alone could make or break the HC’s future and the Vols, the Tide, and both the Mizzou and LSU Tigers don’t hand out mercy. The offense will improve. John Mateer is experienced, has chemistry with Arbuckle, and has weapons. But the real wild card is the defense. OU’s reputation has been bruised on that side of the ball under Venables, which is ironic, given his defensive pedigree. This year, there’s no excuse. Let’s see the stakes.
Brent Venables gets the hottest seat in the SEC
According to betting odds, Brent Venables with 600+ is second in line to be the first coach fired in 2025, only Arizona’s Brent Brennan sits higher with 400+. And the SEC’s hot seat isn’t short on company. Hugh Freeze, Sam Pittman, and Billy Napier are all on the danger list. Year Four with no sanctions and no excuses. The clock’s ticking louder than ever. There’s no more forecasting. No more “maybe next year.” This is the year or it’s the door.
On3’s J.D. PicKell is bullish on the Sooners’ upside, but even he says things have to go right. “You’re forecasting to the SEC to a degree, but you’re forecasting if John Mateer can play D1 FBS football or not,” he said. “You were a year ago with Jackson Arnold. You were a year ago with your offensive line and your offensive coordinator. You’re not right now. You know Arbuckle and Mateer work well together.” But that means the QB must shine, the defense must hold, and Brent Venables must finally prove he can lead OU back to the promised land. Anything less, and we’re talking about a new regime in Norman by December.
Guys like R Mason Thomas, Kobie McKinzie, and Kip Lewis are back and expected to anchor a unit that must produce, not just survive. If the defensive line doesn’t rise to the challenge, the season could collapse before it ever hits the homestretch. The pieces are in place. The staff is stacked. The money’s been spent. But if the Sooners stumble again, Brent Venables won’t be around for Year Five.
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