The Battle of Florida never disappoints, does it? Here the Panthers were, cruising through the playoffs 1st round, winning 6-2 and 2-0 on enemy ice. And they looked the favorites for the third game too. But what did we get instead? A proper Tampa Bay statement – that they are not just here for the participation prizes. Oh no, the 5-1 thumping has kept the series competitive. Yet, in this 16-team carousel of who will be the Stanley Cup Champion, the ultimate gainers of the 5-1 result turn out to be not Tampa Bay, but Auston Matthews’ Toronto Maple Leafs. How so? Well, that’s what we are here to tell you.
MoneyPuck.com is a site that commutes the chances of a team winning the Stanley Cup based on results, team, form, etc. In fact, they do it in more detail, giving percentage figures of every team’s chance of clearing the successive rounds in the playoffs, culminating in the Stanley Cup.
Well, their latest update on Twitter after the Panthers-Lightnings game shows the Panthers having an 11.7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. But the newest favorites? The Toronto Maple Leafs with 14%. Even till Saturday morning, Moneypuck.com’s estimations were showing the Panthers as odds-on favorites to retain the Stanley Cup with a 14.1% chance. And then boom, the big dive.
Well, it’s understandable to be honest, isn’t it? Losing at home. That in itself would have probably shaved off a few decimal points of the Panthers’ Cup charge. And with the Maple Leafs holding the 14-point figure since April 26 morning, they would have become the new favorites anyway.
With Florida losing today, Leafs are Stanley Cup favourites for now. https://t.co/LFqyE8ugI5 pic.twitter.com/zRJhrlz0C8
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) April 26, 2025
And it’s not like the Auston Matthews-led team didn’t lose on the same day the Panthers got hammered. The Leafs also succumbed to a 4-3 overtime defeat to the Senators. But it was the Senators on home ice. And it was an overtime defeat in which Toronto kept coming back to frustrate Ottawa. It was a must-win game for the Sens – hell, all the remaining games of their series are a must-win for the Senators. That’s how good the Maple Leafs have been.
With a 3-1 lead, they will now go back to home ice and will try to finish off the series as soon as possible. They are having a great season. But can they finally end the long Championship wait?
Toronto dreaming to end Stanley Cup drought under Auston Matthews’ leadership
A change in guard in August 2024, and Auston Matthews became the new captain for the Maple Leafs, replacing John Tavares. And boy, has it been an inspired change. It’s not like the Maple Leafs were doing badly in their division. But under his leadership, they have become the division Champion for the first time since 2021 (and that season was shortened due to the pandemic).
With 108 points, they have been one of the most in-form teams in the NHL. But don’t take our word. MoneyPuck.com’s calculations are constantly showing them as one of the prime contenders for the 2025 Stanley Cup. And it will be a sweet win for the fans. After all, they have been waiting for 48 years for a Stanley Cup.
Yes, they have been one of the most prolific winners of the coveted title, having won it 13 times. Only one team has more than the Leafs. But since landing the 13th title in 1967, the Atlantic Division team has been going through the longest Cup drought among the current teams in the NHL. But now, the city of Toronto is dreaming again.
They hope that with Auston Matthews, they will finally move on from the unlucky 13. And Maple Leafs will have a brand-new beginning, as the 2025 Stanley Cup Champion. But first, they will have to crush the Senators before the scope of a fairytale revival arises.
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