What’s next for the Boston Celtics? It’s the question everyone’s been asking since tragedy struck. Jayson Tatum, the heart and soul of the franchise, tore his Achilles during the Knicks series—a moment that instantly changed the course of the Celtics’ future. Surgery was inevitable, and with rehab likely to sideline him for most of next season, Boston suddenly finds itself staring down a difficult reality: no Tatum, no clear path forward.
But that wasn’t the only shake-up. Just weeks into the offseason, the front office pulled the plug on two pillars of last season’s championship run. Jrue Holiday was dealt. Kristaps Porzingis followed. Even Luke Kornet cashed in with the Spurs on a four-year, $41 million deal. And with whispers growing louder about Al Horford potentially heading elsewhere, the Celtics’ once-dominant core is rapidly thinning out. Here’s why:
Tanking gets Celtics closer to the AJ Dybantsa dream
Let’s start with the obvious one. Boston has not had a lottery pick in the draft since picking Jayson Tatum in 2017. Being perennial title contenders and not having missed the playoffs in the last decade, they constantly ended up with late first round and second round picks, which did not do much to elevate their franchise. Looking at the current roster, there is no young star capable enough to carry the torch once Tatum and Brown pass their prime. Clearly, Celtics could use younger talent to secure their future, and next year might be the perfect time to do so.
Based on the eye test, the 2026 draft class looks stacked. And one prospect Celtics would love to acquire is Massachusetts’ own, AJ Dybantsa. The teenager has a solid relationship with Tatum, having met him multiple times during camps and hoop sessions, and is projected to be the first pick in next year’s draft. At 6’9, Dybantsa is the perfect plug and play star and Celtics could immediately contend for a title with him when Tatum returns from injury.
That’s similar to what Mavs aim to do next season with Cooper Flagg. Following their underwhelming injury plagued season, Nico Harrison and Co. beat all odds and won the lottery, potentially securing the future of their franchise for the next decade. Adding Flagg to an already stacked roster, starring Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson, makes them one of the most lethal Western Conference teams right away.
If Celtics wish to have the same impact in the East, then tanking next season is their best chance to do so. Finishing with a bottom ten record increases their chances of landing a lottery pick, and maybe finding the next Jayson Tatum in next year’s draft. Moreover, Celtics can afford to take a gap year because of the Tatum and Brown security.
Celtics’ rebuilding window is wide open as Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are not going anywhere
By bringing in Anfernee Simons and Luka Garza in exchange for Holiday and Porzingis, not only did the Celtics shed massive salary, but also confirmed that they are determined to get younger. After Tatum’s injury, the window of winning with last year’s core seemed over because most players were on the older side and putting the franchise way above the second apron.
However, Celtics’ front office realized that their window to rebuild and contend for another title in a couple of years is wide open. That’s because their two best players, Tatum and Brown, are only 27 and 28-years-old respectively, and have several years left in their prime. Moreover, both superstars have long-term contracts solidifying their stay in Boston. While Brown’s contract keeps him with the Celtics through 2028-29, JT has the next four years along with a $71.4 million player option for the 2029-30 season.
Jun 17, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) celebrates with guard Jaylen Brown (7) after a play against the Dallas Mavericks in game five of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
Therefore, tanking next year makes sense for the Celtics because it gives them a low-pressure environment to develop their younger talent. With Jayson Tatum rehabbing his Achilles, there’s no better time to hand over more responsibility to the likes of Jordan Walsh, Neemias Queta, and rookie Hugo Gonzalez. Not only does this increase their on-court experience, but it also boosts their trade value — a win-win situation.
Tanking also improves Boston’s odds in the draft lottery. Even a mid-lottery pick could become a valuable asset — either as a future contributor or a trade chip once Tatum is back. If Gonzalez or any other young player shows real promise, the Celtics can integrate them into the rotation long-term, strengthening their bench for future title runs.
Most importantly, tanking aligns with their timeline. Brown will still be in his prime. Tatum will return with fresh legs and renewed hunger. And the organization will have both cap flexibility and developmental progress under its belt. While the strategic upside of tanking is clear, the harsh reality is this: without their franchise cornerstone, the Celtics are unlikely to seriously compete anyway. Accepting that now could be the smartest move they make all year.
Tanking makes sense because of Celtics’ uncertain ceiling without Jayson Tatum
Of course, it will not be easy for the Celtics to buy into the idea of tanking. After all, the franchise is synonymous to winning and has the most championship banners than anyone else in the league. Moreover, competing is not just a habit in Boston, it’s a lifestyle. They have not had a losing season since 2013-14, the last time they missed the playoffs.
In the 2024-25 season, Tatum averaged an impressive 26.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game, playing heavy minutes and leading the team in nearly every major statistical category. His shooting efficiency was strong, with 45.2% from the field, 37.2% from beyond the arc, and 88.9% from the free-throw line.
Notably, his advanced stats reflect his value—he recorded a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 23.6, a true shooting percentage (TS%) of 61.0, and a box plus-minus (BPM) above +5, placing him in elite MVP-level territory. In the playoffs, his production was even more impactful, averaging 28.1 points and 11.4 rebounds per game.
May 12, 2025; New York, New York, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) is helped off the court by after an injury in the second half during game four of the second round for the 2025 NBA Playoffs against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Tatum would leave the game with an injury after this play. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Beyond the raw stats, Tatum’s on-court impact was vital. The Celtics’ net rating with him on the floor was a positive +10.3, showing how much better the team performed when he was playing. His usage rate of nearly 30% demonstrated that the offense ran through him for a sizeable portion of their plays.
Defensively, Tatum was one of the league’s top forwards in defensive win shares, regularly tasked with guarding the opponent’s best wing players. His defensive versatility and ability to switch across positions 2 to 4 were crucial for Boston’s schemes, a vital reason for their dominant postseason run in the 2023-24 season.
The loss of Tatum creates a gap that is essentially unfillable for the 2025-26 season. His combination of scoring volume and efficiency is unmatched on the team. Additionally, his unique playmaking ability—averaging 6 assists per game—served as a secondary point guard, initiating key offensive sets. His rebounding on both ends also helped the Celtics secure critical possessions, while his leadership and clutch postseason performances made him indispensable. No other current player on the roster can replicate that breadth of production or intangibles.
Also, players like Jaylen Brown and Derrick White, who are heading into next season completely healthy, and even head coach Joe Mazzulla, would likely still have winning on their mind. But realistically, how far can the Celtics go even if they try to compete next year? Of course, there is the glaring Tatum void and without him, the team loses one of their primary scorers.
Now, with Luke Kornet gone and Al Horford potentially on his way out, the Celtics are staring down a serious size issue. Sure, they might still clinch a playoff spot in the relatively softer Eastern Conference. But come postseason, running into bigger, more physical teams like the Knicks or Cavaliers could expose that lack of frontcourt depth. And if Boston chooses to remain competitive rather than retool, a first- or second-round exit feels like their ceiling — hardly an outcome the franchise would be satisfied with.
That would neither get them a championship nor would they be closer to winning the draft lottery. Clearly, all signs hint toward tanking being a viable option for the franchise. And maybe after this gap year, new owner Bill Chisholm will be equipped enough to follow through on his vision of bringing another banner to the franchise. “I want to raise banners. I want to raise them now and I want to raise them in the future as well.” He remarked. Ironically, tanking might be the most logical way to achieve that goal. Do you agree?
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