Another weekend, another big race day at the iconic Saratoga Racecourse. On July 26, five exquisite equine beasts will lock horns with each other in a bid to win the G2 Jim Dandy. Among them, all eyes will surely be on Sovereignty, winner of two Triple Crown races earlier this year. As it would seem logical, fans already seem to have lent their vote of confidence to the son of Into Mischief.
Trainer Bill Mott, though, keeping up with the whimsical and expect-the-unexpected nature of the sport, isn’t done being cautious. “It looked okay,” was all the Kentucky Derby-winning horse racing trainer had to say after Sovereignty’s workout at Saratoga last Saturday. But while Mott’s reluctance to claim victory so soon is understandable, it might also have something to do with the Kentucky thoroughbred’s past history as well.
In an article by the official Kentucky Derby website from July 24, fans have been cautioned not to place all their eggs in Sovereignty’s basket. The article admits that the colt would be the horse to beat at the upcoming $500,000 Grade 2 race, but also reminds the horse racing fans that the weekend race would be a preparation for next month’s Travers (G1). And that’s where things get a little murky.
Kentucky Derby notes that Sovereignty has a record of fumbling in races en route to even bigger competitions. To justify the point, the Thursday article highlights how the Bill Mott-trained horse lost the 2025 Florida Derby to Tappan Street as the former prepared hard for the next race at Churchill Downs. “ He’ll be tough to beat if he brings his A game to the Jim Dandy, though it’s worth noting this is a prep for next month’s Travers (G1), and it’s possible Sovereignty will be short of his absolute best. Remember, he lost the Florida Derby (G1) when prepping toward a peak performance in the Kentucky Derby,” the report almost sounded ominous.
Horse Racing: 157th Belmont Stakes Jun 7, 2025 Saratoga, NY, USA Sovereignty 2 with Junior Alvarado up wins the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. Saratoga Saratoga Race Course NY USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xGregoryxFisherx 20250607_lbm_fb5_053
However, despite the caution, there are also plenty of other stats that would reassure the fans that Sovereignty is set to add yet another feather to his illustrious cap. The horse has won four of its last five starts and will enter the July 26 race as the 2-5 morning-line favorite. Suffices to say, after Sovereignty’s incredible double win at the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, it looks like fans are pledging their faith to the horse’s scintillating momentum.
Saratoga isn’t unfamiliar territory for the son of Into Mischief, either. He will return to the Oklahoma venue after winning the Belmont Stakes (which Sovereignty won by three lengths over the Preakness winning Journalism). The other thing that could be making the fans confident is the fact that Junior Alvarado will once again be back to steer the 3-year-old colt.
Alvarado led Sovereingty to victory in almost all races they have competed together, except for that fateful race in Florida in March. All things considered, it’s only natural to see the horse leading all prediction charts. In a post on X by the official Kentucky Derby handle, there’s almost a gap of 50% between Sovereignty and the next horse’s winning chances, based on fan votes.
But then again, in the world of horse racing, nothing is over until it is over.
A tall climb awaits Sovereignty at Saratoga
Jim Dandy, first run in 1964, is often considered the stepping stone to winning the Travers. “Absolutely, that [Travers] has been the goal. It is just a matter of how you get there,” Bill Mott made it clear that Sovereignty will enter Saturday’s G2 race with similar ambitions. Mott’s high hopes aren’t misplaced either. After all, thrice in the last five years, the Jim Dandy winning horses have gone on to win the Travers. But to get there, Sovereignty will have his work cut out for him.
Credits – Instagram/Kentucky Derby
The Jim Dandy, despite having only a five-horse field, isn’t going to be child’s play by any means. Along with others, Baeza will be the frontrunner to spoil the day for Sovereignty. The Santa Anita runner-up and the third-place finisher at both the Derby and the Belmont, Baeza is no laughing matter, and both Alvarado and Sovereignty have to keep their guard up. Moreoever, Beza also has a family history of pulling off upset wins. In 2023, the colt’s half-brother, Mage, surprised everyone by winning the Kentucky Derby, while Dornoch, the thoroughbred’s other half-brother, pulled off his own unexpected victory at the 2024 Belmont Stakes.
The Arkansas Derby (G1) winner, Sandman, will only add more thrill to the upcoming race. “Sovereignty is going to be tough to beat, but we are going to give it a try,” said the horse’s Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse. Obviously, it’s understandable why Mott is treading with caution. “We hope he has a good race and has a little luck. Anything can happen,” the trainer told UPI.
Do you think his wariness will pay off? Share your predictions for Saturday’s G2 race with us below!
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