This year’s Open Championship isn’t just another major; it’s Rory’s homecoming. For the first time since 2019, The Open heads back to Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. With the prize purse now at $17 million, a significant jump from $10.75 million in 2019, the stakes are high. And while McIlroy’s homecoming draws headlines, the Open has a history of surprises: Shane Lowry in 2019 and Brian Harman in 2023. It’s never just about the favorite on paper, but the one who can handle pressure, weather, and momentum.
So, which five PGA Tour players are best positioned to master the links this year?
Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler isn’t just the betting favorite heading into The Open; he’s the guy everyone’s trying to catch. He’s been on a tear this season with three wins under his belt, including The CJ Cup Byron Nelson, The Memorial Tournament, and a huge victory at the PGA Championship. Even when he’s not winning, he’s right there in the mix. His recent T8 at the Genesis Scottish Open marked his 10th straight top-10 finish, and three of those came in majors. Safe to say, he’s showing up with plenty of momentum.
What makes him even more dangerous is how complete his game is right now. Scheffler leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Total, Off-the-Tee, Approach, and Tee-to-Green, and he’s sitting comfortably on top of the FedExCup standings. The Open is the only major where he hasn’t cracked the top three yet, but he’s been knocking. T7 in 2024, T8 in his debut in 2021. If he lifts the Claret Jug this time, it won’t just be another trophy; it’ll bring him closer to joining the elite group chasing the career Grand Slam.
Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy comes into The Open with more than just good form; he comes home with unfinished business. This will be his second time playing at Royal Portrush, the same course where he missed the cut in 2019, a moment that left him emotional and overwhelmed. Now, six years later, he returns as the reigning Masters champion and one of just six players in golf history to complete the career Grand Slam. His win at Augusta brought relief, but not immediate confidence. He admitted afterward that something still felt off. But that changed when he played on European soil, lifting his confidence like magic.
The Scottish Open loss didn’t seem to rattle him. He looked more focused than frustrated, as if his eyes were already set on the Claret Jug. His performance backed that up too; he led the field in proximity and scrambling and ranked fifth in Strokes Gained: Putting. The crowd will be loud, the pressure will be high, but McIlroy will be ready.
Xander Schauffele
A year ago, Xander Schauffele was holding the Claret Jug. Now, he’s got a shot at doing something only Tiger Woods and Padraig Harrington have pulled off this century: winning The Open two years in a row. He’s not lighting up the 2025 season so far, but he did sneak into the top 10 at the Genesis Scottish Open and led the entire field in approach play. Not bad for someone flying a bit under the radar.
Majors, though, are where Schauffele always shows up. Out of 33 majors, he’s made the cut 30 times, picked up 16 top-10s, and now has two wins to his name. Before winning last year’s Open, he hadn’t cracked the top 10 in this event since 2018 at Carnoustie. Back when The Open was last at Royal Portrush in 2019, he finished T41. This time, he’s bringing a lot more experience and a lot more belief.
Ludvig Aberg
Ludvig Åberg is quickly building a reputation as one of golf’s next big stars. He’s already posted three top-10 finishes this season, though he hasn’t found much success in the majors this year, missing the cut in the PGA Championship and the US Open. Still, his talent is undeniable. Just last season, in 2024, he made a huge statement by finishing solo second at the Masters, the only player to seriously challenge Scottie Scheffler, the eventual winner.
He currently ranks 15th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, which speaks to the strength of his long game. But like many young players, he’s still figuring out how to manage the mental grind of major championship golf. He’s had his share of early exits, including both of his Open starts, but that’s not unusual for someone still learning the ropes. So while his Open record isn’t impressive yet, his overall profile says he’s due, and The Open is exactly the kind of major where someone like him can catch fire and run with it.
Tommy Fleetwood
Tommy Fleetwood has been putting together a pretty solid season. He’s got five top-10 finishes so far and almost grabbed a win at the Travelers Championship, where he tied for second. He’s also no stranger to The Open. He finished T10 at Royal Liverpool in 2023 and T4 at St Andrews in 2022, so he knows how to handle links golf when it counts.
But what really stands out is how well he knows Royal Portrush. Back in 2019, he was the only player chasing Shane Lowry and ended up finishing solo second. That kind of course history counts for a lot. Right now, he’s also ranked 4th in Strokes Gained: Total, which shows how well-rounded his game is. If you’re looking for a bet with solid form, good vibes, and real experience at this venue, Fleetwood’s your guy.
Only 2 days are left. Will it finally be Rory’s turn to cry again at The Open, but this time, with happy tears? Or will the Claret Jug find its way into the hands of an unexpected hero?
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