What’s Kalen DeBoer‘s second run in Tuscaloosa looking like? If you thought the Nick Saban era ending meant Alabama would morph into a middle-of-the-pack SEC team, think again. Maybe last season wasn’t optimistic with the Tide missing the playoffs and finishing with less than 10 wins for the first time since 2007. Also, they may have lost key playmakers like Jalen Milroe, Malachi Moore, and Tyler Booker ahead of the 2025 season, but now, they have a playoff roster and a favorable schedule. Still, can we assume they’re CFP bound? Not everyone thinks so.
George Wrighster isn’t high on Alabama despite its favorable situation heading into 2025. In a new episode on George Wrighster’s College Football Podcast on July 11, the former NFL TE dropped the wildest college football predictions for the upcoming season, starting with the Crimson Tide playoff prediction. “They are going to miss the College Football Playoff again,” he said without missing a beat. “If the Tide do not start 4-0, the pressure to be perfect is going to be something that’s going to cause this team to fall apart.” And all eyes are on that four-game gauntlet right out of the gate.
Alabama opens the season with a matchup against Florida State on August 30, followed by ULM, Wisconsin, and a trip to Athens to face the SEC leader, Georgia. That’s two possible CFP contenders and two landmines wrapped in what looks like a prove-it month for Kalen DeBoer in his second stint. And then there’s the Nick Saban factor that adds to this. Respect for Alabama isn’t what it used to be after the GOAT’s retirement. “They respect Alabama,” Wrighster said. “They don’t fear Alabama anymore because Nick Saban isn’t there anymore.”
The 2025 slate is manageable after that first month. They get seven home games, including Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma, in Bryant-Denny. Their only true nasties on the road are Georgia and the Iron Bowl finale at Auburn. But that Oct. 18 clash with Tennessee, even without Nico Iamaleava, looms large. FSU QB Thomas Castellanos said the quiet part out loud when he said, “Nick Saban ain’t walking through that door.”
Well, the problem for Alabama is that they’re not just battling opposing teams. They’re battling a perception shift. Now that the mystique is gone, there are a few dents, and programs like the Seminoles know that. “And it’s the lack of fear that makes me hesitate to put Alabama in my top 12 to make the college football playoff,” Wrighster added. And then there’s also the QB conundrum.
Can Kalen DeBoer’s Tide reclaim the edge?
Quarterback clarity is what Alabama needs. It’s a three-horse race between Ty Simpson, Austin Mack, and Keelon Russell. As it stands now, Simpson has the edge in experience. Mack has chemistry with OC Ryan Grubb. Russell might be the future, but 2025 may be too soon to throw him into the fire. So what does ESPN’s algorithm say? The Crimson Tide sits at 66.2% to make the playoff, fourth-best in the nation.
They also have a 53% shot according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, essentially a coin flip. In the SEC, only Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee are projected better. But here’s the reality. Kalen DeBoer’s margin for error is thin. One early loss is tolerable. Two by Week 5, and they might be toast. With 18 national titles in the trophy case, Alabama is still chasing one more to finally leave Yale in the dust.
But unless Alabama channels the old fear factor, George Wrighster’s prediction could end up looking more prescient than provocative. Because at Bama, they don’t settle for anything less than legendary.
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