When Lincoln Riley showed up in the Big Ten after USC made the jump from the Pac-12, it felt like a genius move and was even dubbed a ‘coup’ for the Trojans. The idea was simple: Riley was set to bring his air raid offense to a conference known for its tough, run-heavy style, and it looked like a perfect fit. But now, after a few years, things are looking a bit wobbly, and Riley’s offense seems to be lost somewhere in between, causing an identity crisis for the Trojans. According to Josh Pate, the fallout from this could be pretty serious!
The air raid offense that Riley had perfected at Oklahoma had taken in the running concepts and became more of a ‘Pro-Raid’ offense. Even Riley himself emphasized the importance of the run game for any team to succeed. “A belief in a run game needed to be a part of it, in my opinion. Everyone has different spins and different thoughts on that, but I believe that at some point, if you want to win big, you have to be able to run the ball and run the ball at a high level,” said Riley back in 2022 to Yahoo Sports. But ever since then, it seems Riley hasn’t even taken heed of what he preached.
Forget about Riley’s past three seasons for a second, because we all know that he needs to improve massively. Instead, when you focus on how the teams are losing the games, you will know the glaring problems. So, in that regard, weak offensive line recruitment becomes a major issue. For instance, in the 2023 and 2024 cycles, USC had just three blue-chip linemen, of whom one had already transferred out. The result of this was the Michigan game last year, where, despite leading 14-3 at halftime, the team collapsed in the fourth quarter. But all of this seems to be improving, right?
“No one has faith in Lincoln Riley anymore if that happens,” said Josh Pate about Riley if he regresses even more after finishing 7-6 last season. “Very few people would have faith in him, and so the energy around the program would crater, which means that the recruiting class likely falls apart, or at the very least, it splinters. It’s fragmented at the very least, and that’s the genesis of a lot of the momentum around the program right now,” added Josh Pate.
The recruiting has started seeing signs of revival in the 2026 class, as Riley sits on a 1st-ranked class with 30 commits. But what would happen if Riley’s 2025 season doesn’t even lead to 7 wins like last year? We can see mass attrition from the 2026 class in mid-season, giving Riley two battles to fight on different fronts. And being in the Big 10 even complicates the dynamics.
“Most importantly, you’ve got to win on the field, or else it could all fall off the cliff. Then what do you do with Lincoln Riley? And remember, you’re in the Big 10. The Big 10’s not going to sit around and and just kind of chill while you get your, you know what figured out. It leaves you in the dust. You don’t have the benefit of knowing no one’s going to pull away from you. They will pull away from you,” said Josh Pate.
The verdict is even more important since the stakes this year are at an all-time high. And this has more to do with the previous 3 years’ record of Lincoln Riley. For instance, Riley has brought in coaches on very expensive contracts far exceeding 7-figure numbers, apart from Riley’s own $11.5 million per year contract. The head coach has brought in Chad Bowden as their new GM, who is reportedly getting more than $1 million per year. Then there are other additions, Dre Brown, who joined as executive director of scouting and personnel, along with Zaire Turner in a similar role. So, success needs to come sooner rather than later. Still, while the concerns and reservations are there, there is a silver lining too.
CFB Hall of Famer bats for Lincoln Riley’s success over Michigan
USC is with their stalwart DC D’Anton Lynn, who led the Trojans’ defense to finish 77th nationally as opposed to where it was in 2023 (119th). Then there are returning players like Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon, along with running back Eli Sanders, who will take a massive step up in 2025. And so, David Pollack, CFB Hall of Famer, seemed optimistic about USC’s 2025 season and chose USC over Michigan when asked.
“I like USC. I love what I saw from D’Anton Lynn last year at the DC spot for them, I thought their defense was better than it’s been in years…I think USC is making a leap this year. And I think they won four games in the Big 10 a year ago. I could see them winning at least six this year in the Big 10, and that’s a really good leap,” said David Pollack.
The bottom line is that while USC has weapons to make a comeback under Lincoln Riley, they still need to be cautious. This is because one misstep could dampen their whole season. Thankfully, in 2025, USC is facing just two ranked opponents (Michigan and Penn State) and has easy games to start its season with winning momentum.
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