The cheers at Wrigley Field echoed deep into the June night as Kyle Tucker rounded the bases, again. It wasn’t just another home run. It was a reminder of why the Cubs pushed their chips in for him. Fans didn’t need a scoreboard to know: Tucker changed everything. The Cubs didn’t simply acquire a player through the trade. They also acquired an opportunity for success. But as the 2025 season barrels toward the trade deadline, a storm is brewing. And if the winds didn’t favor Chicago, they might end up losing all hopes of the October Glory.
Upon Tucker’s arrival in Chicago, the team’s offense experienced a boost, propelling them from middle to a top-tier status. His impact has had an effect on the performance of his fellow batters, including Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow Armstrong. But sources around the league suggest owner Tom Ricketts may hesitate to commit to a long-term mega deal, especially one that extends into Tucker’s decline years. That hesitation, however, may be precisely what sinks the Cubs’ 2025 and 2026 championship window.
Here’s the gut punch: the Cubs might lose Tucker after just one season, and worse, owner Ricketts may not be willing to pay what it’ll take to keep him. Sources say Tucker could command north of $500 million in free agency. That number isn’t just eye-watering, it’s a test. A test of ownership’s willingness to embrace the present over fears of decline years to come. A test the Cubs might already be failing.
And it’s not just Tucker. Five more core players, Ian Happ, Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, Jameson Taillon, and Matt Boyd, are set to hit the market after 2026. Together with Tucker, that group has delivered nearly 40% of the Cubs’ fWAR this year. That’s not a rebuild waiting to happen. That’s a fire sale waiting to happen, unless something changes.
Payroll is already down from $214 million to $191 million. Even with a clear shot at the playoffs, the front office is navigating with caution, eyeing cheaper pitching options like Edward Cabrera while exploring bigger names like Sandy Alcantara. But there’s no escaping the fundamental truth: contending costs money, and sustaining it costs more.
The Cubs have made the playoffs just three times since 2016 and advanced past the Wild Card only once. If Ricketts won’t spend to keep this core together, especially the player who transformed the lineup, what exactly is the plan?
The moment is now. Tucker isn’t just a rental; he’s the fulcrum between a short-term thrill ride and a legitimate, extended run. Letting him walk would send a message louder than any home run: the Cubs were close, but not committed.
Extension talks stall as Kyle Tucker’s market heats up
The Cubs had every intention of locking up Kyle Tucker before he hit the open market. After all, when you trade away premium young talent like Cam Smith for a win-now piece, you don’t want that piece walking away after one year. But despite the Cubs’ efforts to extend Tucker during the season, negotiations have reportedly gone nowhere. According to multiple league insiders, there’s been “no traction” on talks, raising alarms across the North Side and beyond.
And now, the vultures are circling. During a recent appearance on MLB Network, insider Jon Heyman named the Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants as two potential big-market suitors expected to enter the Tucker sweepstakes. The Red Sox may be dealing with an outfield logjam, but talent like Tucker reshuffles rosters, especially when paired with his defensive versatility. The Giants, fresh off absorbing Rafael Devers’ massive contract, are another club with the financial muscle and aggressive front office mindset to make a serious push. If either team senses blood in the water, the Cubs could quickly find themselves outbid.
The stakes? Sky-high. According to Spotrac, Tucker is earning $16.5 million this season, but that figure will look like pocket change next year. Multiple executives and insiders, including Heyman and ESPN’s Jeff Passan, have floated $500 million as the expected price tag. And while Tucker has already earned over $55 million in his career innings, he’s never come close to the top tier of earners. That’s about to change. With a .285 average, 15 homers, a .923 OPS, and a résumé that includes three All-Star selections and 20.9 WAR since 2021, Tucker is poised to become one of the most expensive players in baseball history. The Cubs knew the risk when they traded for him.
Now the question is: do they have the stomach and the checkbook to keep him?
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