2025 is going to be a make-or-break year for Lincoln Riley. The Trojans HC has to prove his worth for that job in his 4th year, after registering a troubling dip in his tenure so far. After all, this is the same guy who published 3-straight 12-2 finishes for Oklahoma. Trojan fans hoped Riley would be able to replicate that success at USC, too. And while his 11-3 debut in 2022 suggested a promising start, the program has since trended downward. Now, the USC faithful are growing restless. The HC, however, is confident that it’s all just a matter of patience, and success is just around the corner.
Lincoln Riley was a huge hire for USC. He took over from Clay Helton, who was struggling to revive the Trojans’ championship pedigree. Picture this: a guy who finished 55-10 in his program was replacing the guy who had a 46-24 record at USC. Lincoln looked like the saving grace USC wanted for so long. And he did that in his 1st season, taking the Trojans to an impressive 11-2 finish, and a Pac-12 Championship game appearance. To keep doing what he did at Oklahoma, USC showed its faith in him. His buyout clause with the program stands at a whopping 90 million. Now, however, the community is questioning whether the HC has lived up to the paycheck.
Josh Pate, while appearing for a May 20 episode of South Carolina Sports, shared what Riley told him about his mentality, going into 2025. “I said, all this confidence in this building does not match the external vibe externally. People got a lot of questions about you, and people doubt the trajectory.” To that, Riley told him, “Did they watch our games last year? We’re not out there getting blown out. We got one-possession losses, which means we don’t deserve to win those games, but it also means in the state of program terms, we’re not miles and miles and miles away.”
“We’ve made the changes we think we need to make. […] It’s going to happen. Our way will work. What we’re doing will pay off,” Pate relayed from his conversation with Riley. Slowly, but surely, there is a chance of Riley going back to his winning self. 2024 was undoubtedly a learning point for him, where USC tallied 5 of those one-possession losses. It led to them losing their games and missing out on a bowl game appearance. But Riley’s hopes might still be delayed for some time. In ESPN’s Top 25 teams after spring, USC is not featured. Pate, too, did not have a clear picture of Riley and his USC future.
“I don’t know if it’s this year, but I’d, I’d bank in the next couple of years on them returning to viability status. Does that mean a playoff team? Does that mean one of the Big 10? I don’t know,” he said. Up until now, Riley has yet to instill confidence in skeptics, which is something he rarely had to do in his previous jobs. Compared to the heaps of work still lying out for him, new intel about his huge salary is grabbing eyeballs.
Lincoln Riley’s eye-catching 2023 salary creates buzz
It would make sense for an HC to get some backlash if they put up a poor season, like Riley did in 2023. But USC top brass was still hopeful that he’d be able to pull the program to success in the future. Today got access to USC’s federal tax returns for 2023. It mentioned that Riley was awarded a little over $11.5 million in total compensation that year. 10.2 million of that was his base salary, and he received $100,000 as a bonus. Riley also got $1.5 million in “other reportable compensation.” All of that came in a year that saw USC finish 8-5.
All these numbers would seem logical to be associated with a coach who published a double-digit win record, a Conference Championship berth, and a Heisman Trophy winner in Caleb Williams. Those figures came in what seemed to be the beginning of Riley’s slump. And after an even worse 2024, USC still hasn’t implied that they are losing hope in their best hire in some time. The boom-or-bust idea was never considered when talking about Riley. But given his results at USC? Maybe it’s time to think about it.
Where has that Lincoln Riley magic gone? This is his 4th year as the Trojans’ HC, which will set the precedent for the rest of his career. Riley cannot afford a repeat of his previous two seasons. The HC seems convinced, but can he silence his critics with his 2025 campaign?
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