The numbers don’t add up. At least, not in the way you’d expect. After all, how does a five-man bracket feel more dangerous, more volatile, and more unpredictable than one packed with a dozen elite wrestlers? Well, if you’re surprised, then we won’t blame you because that’s exactly what makes the 86 kg field at the U.S. Olympic wrestling Trials such a compelling puzzle. Small in size, massive in consequence. And right in the middle of it all stands Kyle Dake, with his Olympic dream hanging in the balance.
Dake, once considered nearly untouchable on American soil, was stunned by Zahid Valencia in the U.S. Open final. It was his first loss to a fellow countryman since 2018. Valencia now waits in Final X, while Dake has to battle his way through a minefield of killers just to earn another shot at redemption. And that bracket, though barely populated, is stacked. Wrestling analyst Christian Pyles of FloWrestling put it plainly, “Then you got 86, an even smaller bracket, just a five-man bracket, but boy, this one is loaded. Dake, Marsteller, Starocci, Keckeisen, Coleman.”
And Pyles isn’t exaggerating. What this bracket lacks in quantity, it makes up for in sheer firepower. Dake finds himself in the semifinals, set to face the winner of Parker Keckeisen and Marcus Coleman. Keckeisen has felt Dake’s pressure before. He was dominated in their last encounter. But tournaments are never won on past results, and a single slip could derail everything. Meanwhile, on the opposite side of the bracket, Carter Starocci and Chance Marsteller will collide in a matchup thick with history and tactical intrigue.
Marsteller won their last meeting and brought a gritty, relentless style that could disrupt both Starocci’s rhythm and Dake’s flow. Should they meet later? Marsteller is a wild card. A wrestler who may be just as dangerous for Dake as Valencia was. He’s beaten Starocci before and could pose major stylistic problems for the four-time world champion. But Starocci isn’t going to be easy to keep off the legs.
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His pressure and tackles are among the best in the country. And if he gets momentum early, even someone as seasoned as Marsteller could be in trouble. So what we’re left with is one of the tightest, tensest showdowns of the entire trials. And it’s only five men deep. Dake’s path to Final X is lined with real threats, not just names. This isn’t just about earning another shot at Valencia.
It’s about surviving a bracket so condensed with talent, every single match feels like a final. Meanwhile, those who have already acquired automatic qualification for the same are quite lucky. And four such wrestlers will be keeping a close eye on the proceedings from atop.
Who’s skipping the grind and heading straight to Final X?
Four of wrestling’s biggest names have punched their tickets early to the 2025 Final X! And it is set to unfold this June 14 at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Olympic medalists Spencer Lee, Vito Arujau, and Helen Maroulis, along with World bronze medalist Macey Kilty, have accepted automatic bids and will bypass the US Open gauntlet to go straight to Final X. And this is where the 2025 U.S. World Team will be decided.
In men’s freestyle, Lee (57 kg) and Arujau (61 kg) capitalized on their 2024 medal finishes, Olympic silver and World bronze, respectively, to secure their positions. Of the five eligible men’s freestyle athletes, Kyle Dake, Aaron Brooks, and David Taylor turned down bids. Dake has entered the US Open at 86 kg, Brooks remains unregistered, and Taylor is now retired and is the coach for Oklahoma State.
On the women’s side, Maroulis (57 kg) and Kilty (65 kg) will headline their Final X matchups. Among the six eligible women, Sarah Hildebrandt has retired and now serves as an assistant coach for the US women’s freestyle program. Meanwhile, Amit Elor, Kennedy Blades, and Kylie Welker are targeting new weights.
Elor will wrestle at 72 kg in the World Team Trials Challenge Tournament, with Blades (68 kg) and Welker (76 kg) entered in the U.S. Open. All eyes now turn to who their challengers will be; those answers will come in Las Vegas this April.
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