“I think that real champions find the right level when it’s needed,” Carlos Alcaraz said after his comeback win over Frenchman Arthur Fils in an intense QF of the Monte Carlo Masters on Friday. The four-time Slam winner was pushed back after Fils took the first set. But Alcaraz proved why he’s regarded as one of the finest clay-court players as he eventually powered his way to a gutsy victory. He ousted Fils with a final score line of 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 and entered his maiden semifinal in The Principality. It’s just his second campaign at this ATP 1000 Masters event after 2022, when he lost in the second round. But can he take one step further to the title clash? Standing in his way in the final 4 is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, his compatriot.
Carlos Alcaraz v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Preview
Carlos Alcaraz has had an inconsistent season so far, if not poor. He started the year with an impressive showing at the Australian Open, and then he backed it up with a title in the next event, at the ATP Rotterdam, where he emerged as the winner. It was his first-ever indoor hard court title as well. Then at the Qatar Open, Alcaraz managed to reach the last eight before losing to Jiri Lehecka.
The Spaniard was looking to pull off a three-peat at the Indian Wells (having won the event in 2023 and 2024). But then his hopes were shattered after a crushing defeat against eventual winner Jack Draper. Speaking of his next tournament of the Sunshine Double, the Miami Open, Alcaraz failed to impress again. In the first round itself, he was ousted by Belgian David Goffin.
But Alcaraz seems to have regained his winning momentum now, and how! In his second appearance at the Monte Carlo, he’s reached the last four stage after registering a scintillating QF victory over Arthur Fils on Friday.
Speaking of his opponent and compatriot Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, he’s had an impressive season as well, despite not winning a title. The World No.42 started 2025 at the Hong Kong Open. There, he was ousted in the first round itself. The same was the case in Adelaide, where he couldn’t go further after winning the first round. American Sebastian Korda eliminated him in the second round.
However, Fokina bounced back strongly and made it to the fourth round of the Australian Open before losing to Tommy Paul. After witnessing an early R16 exit in Dallas, he shined at the Delray Beach Open. Fokina reached the final there, before losing against Miomir Kecmanović.
Then at the Mexican Open, too, he made it to the summit clash but lost the match against Tomas Machac. Fokina, however, failed to impress at the Indian Wells and Miami. He crashed out in R128 and R64, respectively. But at the Monte Carlo Masters, he’s made a return to form, securing an SF spot after eliminating Aussie Alexei Popyrin.
Alcaraz vs Fokina: Head-to-Head
Both players have faced each other only once and Alcaraz currently leads the h2h tally 1-0. It will be after two years that these two Spaniards will meet in a professional match.
2023 Barcelona Open QF: Alcaraz 7-6, 6-4
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to win in straight sets
Carlos Alcaraz has a slight edge over Fokina in terms of singles record this season. He has won 18 of his 22 ATP matches compared to his compatriot (18-8).
But when it comes to event history, Fokina shines brighter. He’s managed to enter the QF stage twice already in The Principality. Back in 2021, he reached the last eight before losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas. A year later, in 2022, he even reached the final but couldn’t lift the trophy. Tsitsipas dominated him, again, and won the championship with a score line of 6-3, 7-6. However, in his last two Monte Carlo appearances (2023 and 2024), Fokina failed to impress. He was ousted in R64 in both the campaigns.
On the other hand, Alcaraz played his debut Monte Carlo event in 2022. He couldn’t make a mark back then and crashed out in the second round after losing to Sebastian Korda. But in this year’s edition, Alcaraz has been in sensational form. After winning his 100th ATP match on clay, in the opening round, he’s made it to his maiden SF (10th overall in 1000 Masters events) at the Monte Carlo Masters, marking his best run in the event yet.
Coming to their playing styles, Alcaraz is known for his fluidity and unreal on-court athleticism. Combine that with an unparalleled ability to hit drop shots at will. He’s also got solid groundstrokes in his arsenal alongside the ability to sustain long rallies during intense clashes. Especially on clay. When it comes to Fokina, he’s generally known for his all-court performance. He’s got effective groundstrokes and an aggressive two-handed backhand. Plus, he’s got quick on-court movement too, which means he can easily switch between baseline and near-the-net gameplay.
Considering his overall form this season and the h2h record, too, the Spanish Magician clearly has an edge. Plus, he’s won 15 of his last 16 clay court matches so far. And that speaks volumes of the 2024 French Open king’s clay court dominance. The prediction is for Carlos Alcaraz to enter his first-ever Monte Carlo final with a straight-set win over Fokina on Saturday.
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