The baseball offseason comes with the shuffle of big names changing between teams. More like an annual theme. But when a future Hall of Famer implies that his championship-winning team simply could no longer afford him, that is bound to raise some eyebrows. Justin Verlander has revealed something highly unexpected about his free agency discussions — or lack thereof — with the Houston Astros. And those comments cast scrutiny on the Astros’ spending practices.
Verlander has a big history with the Houston Astros. They got him in a major trade back in 2017. He helped them win their first World Series right away. Houston gave him a $66 million deal in 2019. Then he needed major arm surgery, missing a huge part of the season. But he returned in 2022 on a $25 million deal. He won another Cy Young award and a second World Series. Then, after a short stint with the Mets, the Astros reacquired him in 2023. But now, despite all the mutual interest, he’s gone to the Giants for $15 million.
Verlander pointed out that he has “a lot” of talks with owner Jim Crane this offseason. And there were indications of another deal coming as well. But then the Giants showed the real interest. “Jim is like, ‘We’re not even in a place to make an offer right now,” shared Verlander, mentioning that he “appreciated the candidness” though.
And well, the rest of the buzz followed about the Astros’ money issues. Apparently, they did not want to stretch their payroll for Verlander.
Looks like it was about the luxury tax. In 2024, the Astros needed to pay this tax. While Crane said they were free to keep spending money, in reality, they did not! They lowered their total player salaries by roughly $25 million, according to reports. Houston’s approx $239 million payroll is only a little below the first luxury tax threshold – $241 million. And Justin Verlander would have soared that mark high.
So, while they have saved on the tax limit, the right-hander’s performance with the Giants will show how big a miss it was for them.
Astros’ balancing act: Budget cuts and strategic spending
To be honest, his plan to save money involved more than just Verlander. The Astros allowed star third baseman Alex Bregman to walk in free agency, too. They even traded outfielder Kyle Tucker. Throughout their offseason moves, it was clear that the team was focused on reducing costs.
But the story that the Astros were simply all out of money gets contradictory when you examine another big move they made. They re-signed first baseman Christian Walker to a hefty three-year, $60 million deal. Walker, a three-time Gold Glove winner, averaged 32 homers and 94 RBIs over the last three seasons. That $20 million average annual value for Walker probably filled up most of the wiggle room they had under the tax threshold.
Oct 22, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros owner Jim Crane looks on during battle practice prior to game six of the 2021 ALCS against the Boston Red Sox at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
In addition to the team’s budget calculus, the Astros may have evaluated Verlander’s recent performance and health. At 42 years old, his 2024 season was plagued by shoulder and neck problems, leading to a 7-10 season with a 5.48 ERA — a stark contrast to his Cy Young years when his ERA averaged in the mid-2.00s. He also lost almost two full seasons to Tommy John surgery. So, paying over the budget seemed maybe too risky for them.
In addition, the Astros may believe their top pitching staff can withstand the loss of Verlander. Framber Valdez (15-7, 2.91 ERA in 2024), Hunter Brown (2.51 ERA over his final 25 games last year), and Ronel Blanco (13-6, 2.80 ERA, AL-best .190 opponent average). They also added promising rookie Spencer Arrighetti and trade acquisition Hayden Wesneski for depth.
Seems like the Astros believe this younger, cost-controlled group makes them as competitive as they want to be.
With these moves, the Astros had reformatted their roster for the 2025 season, now with a mix of proven and new talent, headlined by Walker, Wesneski, and infielder Isaac Paredes (who was also part of the Tucker deal). And a strong 16-12 showing in spring training gave early positive signs. Now the question is: Will Houston’s calculated financial strategy and roster reconfiguration pay off? Let’s wait and watch!
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