“I saw winners drinking a glass of champagne. It’s a pity that I’m still 17. Soon I’m going to be turning 18, in the end of April,” said Mirra Andreeva who celebrated her Dubai Open win – her biggest victory to date – with a Coke Zero. The teen tornado, boasting her rich vein of form, arrived for the Indian Wells with strong stats for the season. Though her run has been uninterrupted so far, the Russian player will have to do more than just the usual against her final-round opponent. She is slated to lock horns with top seed Aryna Sabalenka for the BNP Paribas Open title on Sunday, March 16. As an exciting match-up awaits, let’s dive into the details to see which player holds the winning cards.
Andreeva vs Sabalenka: Preview
Mirra Andreeva arrived in the Californian desert on the back of a title finish in Dubai. She did not drop a set en route to the semifinal, where Iga Swiatek awaited their rematch from Dubai. Despite valiant efforts from the Pole to reverse her fate, Andreeva’s challenge proved to be the end of her campaign as she registered a three-set win by 7-6 (1), 1-6, 6-3 to secure a place in the final. The teen talent has overpowered formidable rivals like Clara Tauson, Elena Rybakina, and Elina Svitolina en route to the title decider.
Sabalenka, on the other hand, came into this WTA 1000 event with a string of underwhelming results defining her Middle Eastern campaign in Qatar and Dubai. She has yet to drop a set and booked a semifinal date against Madison Keys after outclassing McCartney Kessler, Lucia Bronzetti, Sonay Kartal, and Liudmila Samsonova in the previous rounds. In the last four, the top seed avenged her heartbreaking Australian Open final defeat to Keys in ruthless fashion, downing the American sensation in straight sets 6-0, 6-1.
Andreeva vs Sabalenka: Head-to-Head
Both players have squared off five times on the tour, with their first encounter dating back to 2023. Sabalenka leads Andreeva 4-1 in their head-to-head tally, and their Indian Wells final-round meeting will count as their sixth overall clash. The duo last met at the Australian Open in January this year.
2025 Australian Open, R16: Sabalenka 6-1, 6-2
2025 Brisbane, SF: Sabalenka 6-3, 6-2
2024 Roland Garros, QF: Andreeva 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-4
2024 Madrid Open, QF: Sabalenka 6-1, 6-4
2023 Madrid Open, R16: Sabalenka 6-3, 6-1
Prediction: Mirra Andreeva to win in three sets
Andreeva extended her streak to an 11th straight match following a classic show against Swiatek. Her 2025 season has recorded triumphant results so far. The 17-year-old commenced the calendar with a semifinal finish against Sabalenka in Brisbane and suffered a similar fate against the Belarusian star in the fourth round of the Australian Open.
Though she couldn’t find her footing in Qatar after bowing out in the second round, the young talent became the youngest-ever WTA 1000 champion with her Dubai Open finish, as she subsequently made an entry to top 10 in the world rankings as well.
Andreeva boasts a solid all-court game style, with emphasis on her aggressive baseline coverage. Coupled with strong mental resilience, the ninth seed is hard to crack under pressure and can easily gap her rivals by finishing points early with her impressive counterpuncher technique. However, a lack of experience might cost her winning chances against Sabalenka.
Sabalenka, the World number 1, endured a rough start to the season after falling short of her Australian Open three-peat bid against Madison Keys. What followed was rather more devastating, as she was unable to restore her strength through the entirety of the Middle East swing – losing in the first round of the Qatar Open and the Round of 16 in Dubai. However, in Indian Wells, the Belarusian player flipped her losing odds.
Sabalenka’s game is heavily defined by explosive groundstrokes which is quite similar to her 17-year-old rival. Moreover, her impressive service and the ability to navigate the court with ease only add to her strong fighting spirit. On any other day, the World No. 1 would secure the winning choice but, Andreeva’s recent form is not to be taken for granted.
Though this match is a toss-up, the teen Russian’s chances to claim a consecutive WTA 1000 could be on the horizon. If she manages to level Sabalenka’s superior experience and rids herself of unforced errors, the summit clash of the Indian Wells Masters should see Mirra Andreeva lift the title.
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