Fans were on the edge of their seats when the UFC first announced Justin Gaethje vs. Dan Hooker for UFC 313. The matchup had all the makings of an instant classic. Two of UFC’s toughest warriors, with high-output striking and chins that refuse to crack, were going to fight each other. However, things took an unfortunate turn.
Recently, Hooker was forced to withdraw due to injury, leaving the UFC scrambling for a replacement. Enter Rafael Fiziev, the lightweight division’s explosive striker looking for redemption after his last loss to Gaethje. While Fiziev is undoubtedly a dangerous opponent, stepping in to face Gaethje again might be a career misstep. Here’s why:
Coming back from injury against Justin Gaethje
Fiziev is coming off an injury, and there are few fighters worse to face in that condition than Justin Gaethje. In the main event of UFC Vegas 79, Fiziev suffered a TKO loss because of a knee injury in round two. Moreover, this kept him out of UFC action for more than 16 months. Now, he is returning to fight the toughest challenge of his career, ‘The Highlight’.
The former interim champion is one of the most violent and relentless fighters in UFC history. Despite being unpredictable, Gaethje is famous for breaking his opponents down physically and mentally. Facing Gaethje at anything less than 100% is a recipe for disaster. If Fiziev’s recovery isn’t flawless, his cardio, movement, or durability might suffer, and Gaethje is the last person an injured fighter wants to test that against.
Gaethje dominated Rafael Fiziev when they last fought!
Their first encounter at UFC 286 was a war, but it told a straightforward story—Fiziev started strong, only for Gaethje to gradually dismantle him with pressure and experience. The later rounds saw Gaethje’s superior conditioning and fight IQ take over. Moreover, it left Fiziev battered and outclassed by the final bell.
via Imago
Unless Fiziev has made drastic improvements to his endurance, defense, and ability to handle Gaethje’s non-stop pace, history could repeat itself. Gaethje thrives in rematches, making adjustments that punish opponents even worse the second time around.
Gaethje’s leg kicks vs. Fiziev coming off injury
Fiziev’s kicking game is a major weapon. However, Gaethje’s leg kicks are among the most brutal in the sport. If Fiziev’s injury has compromised his ability to absorb or check kicks, he could be in for a painful night. The former BMF champ systematically breaks down opponents with relentless low kicks. So if Fiziev can’t fire back with the same intensity or mobility, he risks being immobilized early. Fighting Gaethje requires full confidence in one’s legs, and if Fiziev isn’t fully recovered, this matchup could expose his biggest vulnerability.
There’s no denying Rafael Fiziev’s talent! He’s one of the most dynamic strikers in the lightweight division. But taking a rematch against Gaethje, especially coming off an injury, could be a costly gamble.
Gaethje has already proven he can outlast and overwhelm Fiziev, and with the added factor of Fiziev’s recent layoff, the odds seem stacked against him. If Fiziev can’t make major adjustments or prove his injury is a non-factor, this could turn into another grueling night that sets his career back instead of pushing it forward. How do you think this fight plays out at UFC 313? Who wins? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
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