You know how every draft class has that one guy? The wild card. The one everyone wants to believe in but isn’t sure how soon they can trust. Well, in the 2025 NFL Draft, that guy is Jaxson Dart.
Now, the 6’2, 225-pound Ole Miss QB lit up the Combine. He completed 18-of-23 passes with absolute zip and showed off that arm talent. For a moment there, he looked like a lock for the top half of the first round. But now? With draft day kicking in closer, some teams are all in; others are backing off. And it’s not because of the arm. It’s what’s going on between the ears and how that’ll translate to Sundays.
Here’s where The Athletic’s Dane Brugler comes in. He joined Nate Tice in a new episode on Yahoo Sports on April 5 and painted a grim picture. According to him, Jaxson Dart’s draft stock is all about projection. “With Jaxson Dart, it’s you know, what’s your projection in terms of when he’s going to get on the field,” he said. “How long is it going to take for him to get there? Like, there’s just a lot of unknowns that are tough to project with him.” The tools are loud—good size, legit athlete, can run both designed stuff and improvise on the run. But mentally? Mechanically? He’s still a work in progress.
Jaxson Dart has a habit that Brugler finds concerning. He locks in on his first read, and if it’s not there, he drops his eyes and takes off running. Worked for him in college, but what about the pro level? As the analyst pointed out, “In the NFL, it’s just you want to be able to see him get through one to two to three, eliminate things quickly, and understand why he’s eliminating things and why he’s getting to the backside of it. It’s going to be much more of a process in the NFL.” Because once you’re in the NFL, defenses eat that one-read stuff alive.
Stats back it up. Jaxson Dart had a killer 92.9 PFF passing grade when throwing off his first read. But when he had to move on? It dipped to 60.3, and that’s 63rd in the FBS, man. Brugler’s concern is whether Jaxson Dart can translate to the NFL game fast enough—“I think there’s some teams that might be willing to roll that dice in the first round while other teams… ‘okay I’d love to draft him on day two and develop him again his own pace and bring him along.’” There’s just no clear timeline for when he’ll actually be ready to take the field. And that scares off the franchises looking for immediate impact. Quarterbacks tend to go early, so if any of the 32 teams fall in love with his potential, Dart could still sneak into the first round.
Pittsburgh Steelers stir the pot for Jaxson Dart
Speaking of teams, here’s where it gets juicy. The Pittsburgh Steelers, that $6B franchise, have been lurking in Dart waters for a while. They’ve been tracking Jaxson Dart since the Combine; they even met him there. But oddly enough, they skipped his Pro Day entirely. No HC Mike Tomlin and no GM Omar Khan in Oxford. But plot twist! The QB’s still flying to Pittsburgh for a pre-draft visit. So, clearly, the interest is real.
Stats-wise, Jaxson Dart is no slouch. 10,617 passing yards and 72 scores across three seasons at Ole Miss. But his 2-minute drill numbers don’t pop. In 2022, he posted a 44.0 grade, bumped it to 52.8 in 2023, and finally hit 67.7 last year. But it’s still behind the likes of Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward, who are drawing strong buzz for Tennessee and Cleveland, respectively.
So yeah, Jaxson Dart is the mystery box of this year’s draft class. You might open it and find a franchise QB… Or a guy who needed more cooking time than anyone expected.
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