2025 March Madness First Round: Duke vs Mount St. Mary’s Lineups, Preview & Prediction

6 min read

March Madness is here, and the fever for it is high as everyone; from President Obama to you, is picking their favorites! But there’s a team that everyone considered a threat for some time now. In November 2024, around 300+ colleges were spread out over 30 + Division conferences to see who would reign supreme over the others. Now, 68 of the top seeding teams have begun competing in the ultimate competition of a single-game elimination tournament. Now the threat. The Duke Blue Devils. After a successful run that saw them becoming the Conference tournament champions and the Conference regular season champions this year, are set to commence their March Madness run with a game against the Mount St Mary’s Mountaineers. So who all are playing for the ‘Devils’ today?

And just like all of us, the matchup is something head coach Donny Lind is looking forward to. In a statement to the Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette after Selection Sunday, he stated, “Today when we walked out there for the national anthem, it was a little bit of a holy cow moment for me. Now to get to move on with this group and let them keep playing and to go down to Raleigh and play Duke is awesome. We’ve got to get ready and give them everything we’ve got.” Having secured the 16th seed in the March Madness bracket, do Donny Lind and Co have it in them to go up against the Duke? Not really, if the odds are to be considered. But in a game, who takes the guarantee?

The Duke Blue Devils ended their 2024-25 season run with a 31-3 record. Any reasons to discredit what earned them a No. 1 seed in the 2025 March Madness bracket? Meanwhile, the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers finished 4th in the MAAC regular-season standings with a 23-12 record. Their conference tournament win helped to earn them the No. 16 seed. From an overall standpoint, Duke already holds an advantage. More to their credit, according to rankings by kenpom.com, Duke is currently No. 1 overall in the KenPom rankings, with the 3rd best offense and 4th best defense. Meanwhile, Mount St. Mary is down at 238! Things could have been better had they not possessed the 279th-best offense and 183rd-best defense amongst the collegiate teams.

Jon Scheyer’s boys have reportedly averaged 82.7 points per game and in the process, they give up at least 61.9 points per outing. With a +707 scoring differential overall, the team reportedly outscores opponents by 20.8 points per game! Crazy! Meanwhile, Mount St. Mary’s reportedly put up 70.7 points per game while they gave up 69.9 per contest. Their scoring differential is down at +30. But can we expect an upset as teams come up with their boys?

Duke’s starting lineup might reportedly feature Sion James, Tyrese Proctor, Kon Knueppel, Cooper Flagg, and Khaman Maluach. For the Mountaineers, it can be Dallas Hobbs, Javon Ervin, Jedy Cordilia, and Dola Adebayo. A lot of questions were raised about Flagg’s availability, as he had been dealing with a sprained left ankle injury over the last week. The same had kept him out of Duke’s ACC tournament semifinal and championship games. However, he is not expected to be absent from the upcoming game. From what Duke head coach Jon Scheyer said, “He’s been itching to get out there”.

NCAA, College League, USA Basketball: North Carolina at Duke Feb 1, 2025 Durham, North Carolina, USA Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer talks with forward Cooper Flagg 2 in the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Durham Cameron Indoor Stadium North Carolina USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xZacharyxTaftx 20250201_gma_bx6_0453

Flagg averaged 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists during the 2024-25 season. Therefore, we can expect a tough challenge to await the Mountaineers. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers’ highest scorer, Dola Adebayo, only averaged 13.4 points per game during the recent season. Plus, it does not help the team that it lost forward Terrell Ard Jr. to a season-ending injury back in late February. On top of that, guard Carmelo Pacheco is also sidelined as he recovers from a finger injury.

Duke’s current efficiency is 38. It is reportedly the highest since the 2001 Blue Devils ended the season, with an NCAA championship, at 37.32. The only team with a higher KenPom efficiency at this time of the year was Duke’s 1999 team, which went 37-2 and finished with a 43.01 efficiency. Meanwhile, Mount St Mary’s holds an efficiency rating of -6.00.

These factors make the Duke Blue Devils squad a massive favorite to win against the Mountaineers. As highlighted by Fox Sports, the Blue Devils are favored by a whopping 32.5 points. The over/under for the game is placed at 140.5. In light of all this, the Blue Devils did not need to do anything else to increase the odds in their favor. However, it does help that the team is going into the game with a rejuvenated mindset. But can the tables turn tonight?

Jon Scheyer reveals ACC Tournament gave Duke confidence: “Injuries are bad luck…. it’s really an opportunity”

The Duke Blue Devils could have easily avoided being crowned the ACC Tournament champion. After all, during the quarterfinal against Georgia Tech, the team had dug themselves a double-digit hole. All thanks to having missed their first 13 3-point attempts. Before half-time, the Blue Devils lost Maliq Brown due to a dislocated shoulder. At the same time, came another blow.

Cooper Flagg went down around the same time with a sprained ankle. Losing two key players, however, provided more of an opportunity than a problem. Under the support of players like Kon Knueppel, the team progressed until the championship title was theirs. If Jon Scheyer hadn’t already thought of it, then the team’s performance over the last games of the ACC tournament helped him have a major realization.

“Sometimes injuries are bad luck, and when there’s bad luck or things that work against you, it’s really an opportunity is what it is,” said Scheyer. “I thought that presented an amazing opportunity for our team to show our toughness in a critical moment.” With the injured players now returned to the team, one can only imagine how the team will perform now!

NCAA, College League, USA Basketball: Stanford at Duke Feb 15, 2025 Durham, North Carolina, USA Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer reacts during the first half against the Stanford Cardinal at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Durham Cameron Indoor Stadium North Carolina USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xZacharyxTaftx 20250215_tdc_bx6_056

The Duke Blue Devils or the Mount St Mary’s Mountaineers? Who will you be rooting for? Let us know in the comments.

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