Bill Self knew it was coming. “I told my staff a week ago, ‘You watch, 7 versus 10, we’re playing Arkansas,’” Self said. The basketball gods must have been listening because Kansas and Arkansas are now set to clash in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Kansas hasn’t lost in the first round since 2006 — but Arkansas already got the better of them once this season, winning 85-69 in a preseason exhibition.
Now, with John Calipari leading the Razorbacks into March Madness for the first time, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Will Self’s prediction come full circle — or will Arkansas pull off the upset?
Kansas enters the tournament as the No. 7 seed in the West Region with a 21-12 record, while Arkansas (20-13) locked down the No. 10 seed after grinding through a brutal SEC schedule. The SEC placed four teams in the AP Top 10 this season as Arkansas emerged from that fire still standing strong.
Kansas will probably roll out a starting five of Hunter Dickinson, Dajuan Harris, Zeke Mayo, Rylan Griffen, and KJ Adams — a balanced mix of size and scoring. Arkansas counters with Johnell Davis, Trevon Brazile, Zvonimir Ivišić, D.J. Wagner, and Karter Knox — a lineup built for speed and disruption. It could probably be a game of chess between the two teams.
Kansas boasts a 116.0 offensive rating (48th nationally) and a 92.7 defensive rating (11th), showing their ability to win on both ends of the floor. Arkansas, however, has a stingier defense (95.2 DRTG, 18th nationally) but a less efficient offense (113.0 ORTG, 73rd). The strength of schedule leans slightly toward Kansas (12th) over Arkansas (22nd), but ESPN’s model gives the Jayhawks a 71% chance to advance.
Jan 14, 2025; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers guard Cam Carter (5) has the ball stolen by Arkansas Razorbacks guard Boogie Fland (2) during the first half at Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
Statistically, these teams are nearly dead even. Kansas averages 76.2 points per game to Arkansas’ 76.6. The Jayhawks shoot slightly better from the field (47.1% vs. 46.6%), but Arkansas gets to the line more frequently, shooting 73.4% from the stripe compared to Kansas’ 71.1%. Offensive rebounding could be the tipping point — Kansas averages 10.5 offensive boards per game, while Arkansas trails with 9.2.
Can Arkansas contain Hunter Dickinson?
Kansas’ success hinges on Hunter Dickinson, the 7-foot-2 center who averages 17.6 points and 10 rebounds per game. Athletic bigs have been a problem for Arkansas all season — South Carolina’s Collin Murray-Boyles and Ole Miss’ Malik Dia both dominated the Razorbacks inside during the SEC Tournament.
Dickinson doesn’t have the same athleticism, but his size and footwork make him a nightmare in the post. Jonas Aidoo and Trevon Brazile will need to stay out of foul trouble if Arkansas hopes to keep Dickinson in check. Arkansas could be in for a long night if Dickinson gets rolling early.
The Razorbacks are getting a much-needed boost with the return of Boogie Fland. The freshman guard, who missed 15 games with a right thumb injury, lit up Kansas for 22 points and five assists in the preseason exhibition matchup in October last year. That kind of spark is exactly what Arkansas needs to make noise in March.
“If you ask me, ‘Will he play more than 15 minutes?’ I don’t know, maybe less, but I know he’s talented,” John Calipari said after Selection Sunday. Talent isn’t the question — it’s whether Fland can shake off the rust quickly enough to make an impact.
Replicating those numbers after a long layoff might be a tall order — but even a solid contribution from Fland could tip the balance in Arkansas’ favor.
Feb 8, 2025; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks center Hunter Dickinson (1) is guarded by Kansas State Wildcats forward Coleman Hawkins (33) during the first half at Bramlage Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images
Johnell Davis will also be a key player for Arkansas. The senior guard leads the Hogs with 15.6 points per game on 54.8% shooting. Davis’ ability to attack the rim and draw fouls will be crucial — especially since Arkansas outshot Kansas at the line by 18 attempts in their exhibition win.
“If we can get to the line and slow the game down, we’ll have a shot,” Davis said earlier this week. That strategy could work, considering Kansas has struggled in half-court defense throughout the season. This matchup isn’t just about the players — it’s a coaching duel between two legends. Bill Self is making his 21st NCAA Tournament appearance with Kansas having led the Jayhawks to two national championships and 17 Sweet 16s. His March pedigree speaks for itself.
But Calipari knows how to navigate this stage, too. This is his 24th NCAA Tournament appearance, and he’s posted a 57-22 record in the national bracket. The difference? Calipari’s team is surging at the right time, winning three of their last five, while Kansas has dropped three of five. Momentum matters in March.
These teams know each other well — too well. Kansas has the edge on paper, but Arkansas’ physicality and ability to draw fouls give them a real shot. If Davis delivers and Fland finds a rhythm, Arkansas will have enough firepower to pull off the upset.
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